{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8e24b09-62ae-4ca0-b01d-bbca61187481", "symbol": "THRE", "name": "Thai Reinsurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.974, "architecture_energy": 63.193, "architecture_maturity": 55.939, "architecture_confidence": 55.917, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.54, "rotation_up": 76.58, "upward_expansion": 90.16, "deceleration": 40.5, "rotation_down": 9.0, "downward_expansion": 12.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.404, 0.393455, 0.383286, 0.383247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.381667, "distance_from_trend": 0.074236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.560128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.430294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108108, "excess_performance": -0.084217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074233, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108108, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4837600, "relative_activity": 0.63372, "balance": 0.369746, "dry_up": 0.798693, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06379, "annualized_volatility": 0.357913, "from_high_reference": -0.145833, "from_low_reference": 0.28125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.381667, "fair_value_reference": 0.560128, "structural_low": 0.33, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.023889, "positive_rate": 0.227273, "directional_follow_through": 0.227273, "median_excess_return": -0.048821, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.085714, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.11236, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.036697, "worst_return": -0.219178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.132191, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217661, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.045872, "worst_return": -0.439394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.22695, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.288417, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.119266, "worst_return": -0.447059, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.217447, "energy": 14.606892, "activity_lines": [ 0.376667, 0.368545, 0.373952, 0.376151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4, "volume": 7483200, "typical_volume": 7934620.0, "trend": 0.376, "fair_value": 0.570064, "relative_strength": -15.129041, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.458595, "energy": 24.657876, "activity_lines": [ 0.386, 0.374545, 0.375952, 0.377763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.41, "volume": 8309300, "typical_volume": 7974840.0, "trend": 0.378333, "fair_value": 0.566795, "relative_strength": -12.840123, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.914198, "energy": 47.681096, "activity_lines": [ 0.395333, 0.382364, 0.378905, 0.379957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4, "volume": 3757700, "typical_volume": 7818105.0, "trend": 0.380667, "fair_value": 0.563654, "relative_strength": -13.576145, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.323232, "energy": 45.479604, "activity_lines": [ 0.398667, 0.387455, 0.380619, 0.381355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 4837600, "typical_volume": 7633655.0, "trend": 0.381667, "fair_value": 0.560128, "relative_strength": -10.430294, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.974164, "energy": 63.192878, "activity_lines": [ 0.404, 0.393455, 0.383286, 0.383247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }