{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8e780cc-313a-49e9-97a6-adc62c11b04c", "symbol": "600800", "name": "Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.115, "architecture_energy": 59.589, "architecture_maturity": 39.808, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 24.29, "upward_expansion": 10.7, "deceleration": 52.45, "rotation_down": 57.22, "downward_expansion": 84.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.109333, 3.163273, 3.557, 3.839484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.33, "trend_reference": 4.105, "distance_from_trend": -0.188794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.426603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.560833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.279221, "excess_performance": -0.236017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028192, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.446983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121368643, "relative_activity": 0.7476, "balance": 0.327988, "dry_up": 0.858239, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111804, "annualized_volatility": 0.603981, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.242537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.105, "fair_value_reference": 3.426603, "structural_low": 2.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.017588, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.002324, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.135514, "worst_return": -0.184426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016419, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.012427, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.406863, "worst_return": -0.212355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03166, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04134, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.460784, "worst_return": -0.233083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.92, "volume": 170858046, "typical_volume": 211731768.5, "trend": 4.2, "fair_value": 3.435128, "relative_strength": -26.70597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.24475, "energy": 90.569648, "activity_lines": [ 3.122, 3.368364, 3.837905, 4.043118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.86, "volume": 142485551, "typical_volume": 189729811.15, "trend": 4.127, "fair_value": 3.430962, "relative_strength": -28.559021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.948241, "energy": 88.753643, "activity_lines": [ 3.008667, 3.229273, 3.711524, 3.956667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 122609102, "typical_volume": 171129667.3, "trend": 4.109333, "fair_value": 3.428013, "relative_strength": -22.687873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.741219, "energy": 74.150613, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 3.164182, 3.617667, 3.889763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.33, "volume": 121368643, "typical_volume": 162344453.25, "trend": 4.105, "fair_value": 3.426603, "relative_strength": -18.560833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.11536, "energy": 59.588724, "activity_lines": [ 3.109333, 3.163273, 3.557, 3.839484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }