{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c8ee152e-6871-4f80-9794-66687c6848c7",
    "symbol": "XS4",
    "name": "ON Semiconductor Corporation",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.359,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": -12.169,
    "architecture_energy": 30.779,
    "architecture_maturity": 44.579,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.288,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.6,
        "rotation_up": 14.1,
        "upward_expansion": 44.15,
        "deceleration": 82.2,
        "rotation_down": 53.16,
        "downward_expansion": 40.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        84.741618,
        79.99187
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 70.43,
    "trend_reference": 72.766333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.032107,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 61.438461,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14635,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 7.783155,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.280545,
    "excess_performance": 0.215906,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032107,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.223234,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.14635,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.271851,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077832,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.65055,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.280545,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.457996,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6857,
      "relative_activity": 1.407488,
      "balance": 1.457996,
      "dry_up": 1.388655,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.149204,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.604519,
      "from_high_reference": -0.391165,
      "from_low_reference": 0.817783
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 72.766333,
      "fair_value_reference": 61.438461,
      "structural_low": 47.610001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.030853,
        "positive_rate": 0.733333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.733333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043988,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.391484,
        "worst_return": -0.160348,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "median_return": 0.084172,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.163881,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 1.034827,
        "worst_return": -0.270614,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.273073,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.303943,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.153963,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.481698,
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        "best_return": 0.719275,
        "worst_return": 0.197291,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "typical_volume": 2980.1,
        "trend": 52.369333,
        "fair_value": 61.049103,
        "relative_strength": 74.730071,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.241542,
        "energy": 97.298479,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.327333,
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          60.843119,
          57.122064
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 3267.75,
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        "relative_strength": 72.838117,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.012957,
        "energy": 94.961276,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 10248,
        "typical_volume": 3772.05,
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        "fair_value": 61.255192,
        "relative_strength": 93.629002,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 93.031772,
        "energy": 97.444806,
        "activity_lines": [
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          67.398357,
          62.163247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 4057.3,
        "trend": 57.496667,
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        "relative_strength": 83.813113,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.409805,
        "energy": 94.661457,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 5054,
        "typical_volume": 4088.05,
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        "relative_strength": 87.656385,
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        "direction": 85.676788,
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          74.746428,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 105.519997,
        "volume": 1968,
        "typical_volume": 4114.0,
        "trend": 61.585666,
        "fair_value": 61.668013,
        "relative_strength": 89.456381,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 81.187953,
        "energy": 81.868298,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 102.400002,
        "volume": 1941,
        "typical_volume": 4008.25,
        "trend": 63.626166,
        "fair_value": 61.795449,
        "relative_strength": 81.282175,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 4258.7,
        "trend": 65.764166,
        "fair_value": 61.94968,
        "relative_strength": 78.264505,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 82.330002,
        "volume": 7545,
        "typical_volume": 4485.3,
        "trend": 67.061833,
        "fair_value": 61.929423,
        "relative_strength": 41.23859,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.719538,
        "energy": 52.170534,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.644667,
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          85.540905,
          77.189774
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 82.839996,
        "volume": 674,
        "typical_volume": 4141.4,
        "trend": 68.224833,
        "fair_value": 61.9125,
        "relative_strength": 34.683509,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.536195,
        "energy": 35.046019,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.055999,
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          78.20772
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 83.879997,
        "volume": 4632,
        "typical_volume": 4095.95,
        "trend": 69.442833,
        "fair_value": 61.870962,
        "relative_strength": 38.832619,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.550399,
        "energy": 29.712069,
        "activity_lines": [
          87.209998,
          92.832544,
          86.927761,
          79.217731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 75.779999,
        "volume": 7012,
        "typical_volume": 4405.7,
        "trend": 70.418166,
        "fair_value": 61.788205,
        "relative_strength": 25.683666,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.166164,
        "energy": 29.102947,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.106665,
          89.380362,
          86.723523,
          79.62658
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 76.839996,
        "volume": 7490,
        "typical_volume": 4549.4,
        "trend": 71.411833,
        "fair_value": 61.672308,
        "relative_strength": 24.998724,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.51824,
        "energy": 23.276932,
        "activity_lines": [
          79.131331,
          86.319271,
          86.525951,
          80.040892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 72.43,
        "volume": 5702,
        "typical_volume": 4744.8,
        "trend": 72.207999,
        "fair_value": 61.540577,
        "relative_strength": 14.693125,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.666817,
        "energy": 27.109631,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.496665,
          82.835817,
          85.780189,
          80.10658
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 70.43,
        "volume": 6857,
        "typical_volume": 4871.8,
        "trend": 72.766333,
        "fair_value": 61.438461,
        "relative_strength": 7.783155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -12.169299,
        "energy": 30.778588,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.855332,
          79.46309,
          84.741618,
          79.99187
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}