{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8f50eec-8186-4e61-b216-0693427d5d44", "symbol": "FBU", "name": "Fletcher Building Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.896, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.897, "architecture_energy": 69.526, "architecture_maturity": 17.74, "architecture_confidence": 71.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.11, "rotation_up": 73.98, "upward_expansion": 65.63, "deceleration": 22.03, "rotation_down": 17.1, "downward_expansion": 23.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.590727, 3.371333, 3.319247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.75, "trend_reference": 3.343, "distance_from_trend": 0.121747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.497128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.136632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019022, "excess_performance": -0.009252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009188, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081366, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.151732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4540373, "relative_activity": 1.100471, "balance": 2.151732, "dry_up": 1.293071, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058051, "annualized_volatility": 0.266689, "from_high_reference": -0.055416, "from_low_reference": 0.415094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.343, "fair_value_reference": 3.497128, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035162, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.043077, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.06079, "worst_return": -0.145756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046875, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145897, "worst_return": -0.082515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013061, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071039, "worst_return": -0.094225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030508, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065527, "active": false }, { "regime": 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repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.167278, "energy": 73.87375, "activity_lines": [ 3.55, 3.392364, 3.219381, 3.248258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.73, "volume": 5413911, "typical_volume": 4451069.85, "trend": 3.344667, "fair_value": 3.518685, "relative_strength": 8.567004, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.800979, "energy": 74.165238, "activity_lines": [ 3.640667, 3.474182, 3.27319, 3.273333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.65, "volume": 5275214, "typical_volume": 4360406.0, "trend": 3.343667, "fair_value": 3.507679, "relative_strength": 6.552001, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.958625, "energy": 72.803066, "activity_lines": [ 3.668, 3.528727, 3.318048, 3.293032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.75, "volume": 4540373, "typical_volume": 4125843.45, "trend": 3.343, "fair_value": 3.497128, "relative_strength": 8.136632, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.897296, "energy": 69.526098, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.590727, 3.371333, 3.319247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }