{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8f9980d-13a7-4b16-a377-220617cf85e9", "symbol": "300374", "name": "China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.427, "architecture_energy": 54.774, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.409, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.85, "upward_expansion": 14.51, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 49.79, "downward_expansion": 78.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.586667, 10.596364, 11.42981, 12.265505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.91, "trend_reference": 13.454, "distance_from_trend": -0.189089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.444039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.546156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317272, "excess_performance": -0.324671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293579, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317272, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15889870, "relative_activity": 0.987606, "balance": 0.644816, "dry_up": 1.193443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083833, "annualized_volatility": 0.266523, "from_high_reference": -0.463091, "from_low_reference": 0.136458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.454, "fair_value_reference": 15.444039, "structural_low": 9.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.002264, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.023014, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.519563, "worst_return": -0.149086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08902, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.530566, "worst_return": -0.279715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000691, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064017, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.375309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"direction": -69.377232, "energy": 82.476606, "activity_lines": [ 10.171333, 10.654364, 11.738, 12.628452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.86, "volume": 19538790, "typical_volume": 16164242.05, "trend": 13.612667, "fair_value": 15.471795, "relative_strength": -27.130924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.360846, "energy": 64.111266, "activity_lines": [ 10.388667, 10.605636, 11.570857, 12.439871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.91, "volume": 15889870, "typical_volume": 16089286.45, "trend": 13.454, "fair_value": 15.444039, "relative_strength": -29.546156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.426501, "energy": 54.773636, "activity_lines": [ 10.586667, 10.596364, 11.42981, 12.265505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }