{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c90098a1-2962-49f5-a5a5-4a0d9d43539c", "symbol": "CNEG", "name": "Amundi MSCI China ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.67, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.016, "architecture_energy": 29.18, "architecture_maturity": 30.636, "architecture_confidence": 42.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.34, "rotation_up": 48.38, "upward_expansion": 34.53, "deceleration": 47.07, "rotation_down": 16.71, "downward_expansion": 45.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.241999, 32.448054, 32.426333, 32.722327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.875, "trend_reference": 33.4482, "distance_from_trend": 0.01276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.181796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052614, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.676936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056696, "excess_performance": -0.110007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.656476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29748, "relative_activity": 3.971616, "balance": 3.656476, "dry_up": 1.916684, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030124, "annualized_volatility": 0.207311, "from_high_reference": -0.232269, "from_low_reference": 0.153781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.4482, "fair_value_reference": 32.181796, "structural_low": 29.360001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.013451, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063127, "worst_return": -0.090028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.028129, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003334, "worst_return": -0.059592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006725, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006725, "worst_return": -0.006725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086999, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010567, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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-40.623696, "energy": 23.80223, "activity_lines": [ 31.970999, 31.726981, 32.183338, 32.695208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.764999, "volume": 16935, "typical_volume": 7974.8, "trend": 33.5555, "fair_value": 32.171724, "relative_strength": -8.01253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.756259, "energy": 20.410217, "activity_lines": [ 32.718665, 32.09089, 32.298185, 32.701714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.875, "volume": 29748, "typical_volume": 7490.15, "trend": 33.4482, "fair_value": 32.181796, "relative_strength": -9.676936, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.015971, "energy": 29.180269, "activity_lines": [ 33.241999, 32.448054, 32.426333, 32.722327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }