{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c90e964e-aec6-46f7-80e8-9795638023fc", "symbol": "TAXX", "name": "BONDBLOXX ETF TRUST IR+M TAX-AWARE SHORT DURATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.614, "architecture_energy": 20.772, "architecture_maturity": 20.647, "architecture_confidence": 75.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.91, "rotation_up": 22.82, "upward_expansion": 48.35, "deceleration": 89.12, "rotation_down": 38.67, "downward_expansion": 25.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.399983, 50.439113, 50.432151, 50.417825 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.478, "trend_reference": 50.39717, "distance_from_trend": 0.001604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.718401, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.364833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001189, "excess_performance": -0.124436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129614, "relative_activity": 0.524152, "balance": 1.152595, "dry_up": 0.524021, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002789, "annualized_volatility": 0.013947, "from_high_reference": -0.003413, "from_low_reference": 0.027935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.39717, "fair_value_reference": 48.718401, "structural_low": 50.094899, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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50.634123, "volume": 938578, "typical_volume": 206325.0, "trend": 50.309986, "fair_value": 48.633615, "relative_strength": -6.378673, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.078837, "energy": 71.884792, "activity_lines": [ 50.559498, 50.484295, 50.427407, 50.394669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.46914, "volume": 445131, "typical_volume": 221921.7, "trend": 50.330978, "fair_value": 48.648784, "relative_strength": -8.390178, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.555798, "energy": 58.470848, "activity_lines": [ 50.53823, 50.490215, 50.432493, 50.404937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.449202, "volume": 814162, "typical_volume": 259714.2, "trend": 50.350814, "fair_value": 48.663542, "relative_strength": -9.361353, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.725811, "energy": 41.615677, "activity_lines": [ 50.510532, 50.491337, 50.435792, 50.412564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.429263, "volume": 121069, "typical_volume": 260308.5, "trend": 50.36802, "fair_value": 48.677897, "relative_strength": -7.707488, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.365436, "energy": 23.947323, "activity_lines": [ 50.478207, 50.485829, 50.437397, 50.417625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.334556, "volume": 143489, "typical_volume": 261813.75, "trend": 50.379121, "fair_value": 48.691257, "relative_strength": -7.09844, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.877332, "energy": 15.250617, "activity_lines": [ 50.420656, 50.462753, 50.430848, 50.415466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.324587, "volume": 124155, "typical_volume": 263140.55, "trend": 50.386905, "fair_value": 48.704324, "relative_strength": -7.815652, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.996153, "energy": 18.145497, "activity_lines": [ 50.374433, 50.43714, 50.424008, 50.411948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.478, "volume": 129614, "typical_volume": 247283.4, "trend": 50.39717, "fair_value": 48.718401, "relative_strength": -10.364833, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.613741, "energy": 20.772304, "activity_lines": [ 50.399983, 50.439113, 50.432151, 50.417825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }