{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9115d2f-bea7-4533-81fe-e8105829bafd", "symbol": "SVT", "name": "Severn Trent PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.541, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.676, "architecture_energy": 16.766, "architecture_maturity": 15.927, "architecture_confidence": 77.306, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.04, "rotation_up": 52.38, "upward_expansion": 30.25, "deceleration": 35.8, "rotation_down": 13.75, "downward_expansion": 19.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 3062.266667, 3020.727273, 3021.762147, 3040.502374 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3142.0, "trend_reference": 3044.893188, "distance_from_trend": 0.031892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2672.128725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.090784, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054265, "excess_performance": 0.003029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175842, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000908, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642164, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2655995, "relative_activity": 0.980044, "balance": 0.642164, "dry_up": 0.998122, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045539, "annualized_volatility": 0.290597, "from_high_reference": -0.057642, "from_low_reference": 0.320167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3044.893188, "fair_value_reference": 2672.128725, "structural_low": 2836.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.029755, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.03315, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 0.074778, "worst_return": -0.160333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01561, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.054648, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.118067, "worst_return": -0.120473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028818, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014114, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.077645, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017388, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077066, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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-0.906852, "energy": 7.647498, "activity_lines": [ 3013.6, 2983.586191, 3014.286734, 3034.516345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3018.0, "volume": 2469042, "typical_volume": 2788637.1, "trend": 3037.036328, "fair_value": 2667.371055, "relative_strength": -3.556271, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.844036, "energy": 16.492505, "activity_lines": [ 3019.333333, 2989.890909, 3011.788171, 3033.730524 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3142.0, "volume": 2655995, "typical_volume": 2710076.3, "trend": 3044.893188, "fair_value": 2672.128725, "relative_strength": 0.090784, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.675521, "energy": 16.766389, "activity_lines": [ 3062.266667, 3020.727273, 3021.762147, 3040.502374 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }