{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c91adcb2-a665-4514-843e-e72cc423fe0d", "symbol": "000669", "name": "Jinhong Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.05, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.474, "architecture_energy": 62.071, "architecture_maturity": 19.898, "architecture_confidence": 62.237, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.71, "rotation_up": 20.15, "upward_expansion": 22.39, "deceleration": 44.28, "rotation_down": 67.34, "downward_expansion": 64.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.437333, 3.569636, 3.83881, 3.985183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.48, "trend_reference": 3.971333, "distance_from_trend": -0.12372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.459103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41515, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.861723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12987, "excess_performance": 0.12247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068617, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26033769, "relative_activity": 0.427215, "balance": 0.673821, "dry_up": 0.467774, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103227, "annualized_volatility": 0.658065, "from_high_reference": -0.374101, "from_low_reference": 0.265455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.971333, "fair_value_reference": 2.459103, "structural_low": 2.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020764, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012341, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.31, "worst_return": -0.046575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151716, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.192546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394737, "worst_return": -0.060241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.260015, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.642105, "worst_return": -0.216867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.097403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.136842, "worst_return": -0.065089, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124378, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188679, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046575, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 1.93, "volume": 22312573, "typical_volume": 19622958.0, "trend": 1.853, "fair_value": 2.053846, "relative_strength": 8.19138, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 81952733.5, "trend": 3.944333, "fair_value": 2.438654, "relative_strength": -7.387188, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.616816, "energy": 66.524674, "activity_lines": [ 3.540667, 3.726909, 3.994429, 4.054731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.34, "volume": 17125863, "typical_volume": 72087360.7, "trend": 3.953667, "fair_value": 2.448974, "relative_strength": -6.146087, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.638298, "energy": 69.195979, "activity_lines": [ 3.456, 3.628, 3.906333, 4.015742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.48, "volume": 26033769, "typical_volume": 60938307.6, "trend": 3.971333, "fair_value": 2.459103, "relative_strength": -6.861723, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.473629, "energy": 62.071393, "activity_lines": [ 3.437333, 3.569636, 3.83881, 3.985183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }