{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c91e0b92-65c7-4ece-baa9-2e83a7266c03", "symbol": "PG", "name": "The Procter & Gamble Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.83, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.079, "architecture_energy": 8.005, "architecture_maturity": 19.698, "architecture_confidence": 42.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.47, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 31.66, "deceleration": 65.79, "rotation_down": 41.69, "downward_expansion": 22.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.23859, 128.336247, 127.332295, 127.332066 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 125.559998, "trend_reference": 127.618766, "distance_from_trend": -0.016132, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 136.164574, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077881, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.782525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058057, "excess_performance": -0.232304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015778, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 943, "relative_activity": 1.57206, "balance": 0.417703, "dry_up": 1.649162, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031939, "annualized_volatility": 0.173297, "from_high_reference": -0.104782, "from_low_reference": 0.079908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.618766, "fair_value_reference": 136.164574, "structural_low": 120.078114, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006556, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.005206, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.050118, "worst_return": -0.05938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036133, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.008878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053863, "worst_return": -0.098258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034016, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095191, "worst_return": -0.119143, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.074039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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125.893333, 125.226315, 125.894269, 126.085407 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 129.933319, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 453.1, "trend": 125.827745, "fair_value": 136.122942, "relative_strength": -19.532524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.624773, "energy": 30.966295, "activity_lines": [ 127.59644, 126.15166, 126.133412, 126.35321 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 130.310165, "volume": 342, "typical_volume": 447.85, "trend": 125.989184, "fair_value": 136.144781, "relative_strength": -17.165662, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.266756, "energy": 48.973687, "activity_lines": [ 128.885607, 127.020755, 126.386245, 126.642398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 130.746521, "volume": 293, "typical_volume": 456.9, "trend": 126.256885, "fair_value": 136.177876, "relative_strength": -18.258923, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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127.218604, "fair_value": 136.243187, "relative_strength": -15.816662, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.694303, "energy": 38.917771, "activity_lines": [ 130.194047, 129.479314, 127.556832, 127.605553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.839996, "volume": 2079, "typical_volume": 575.6, "trend": 127.420443, "fair_value": 136.205714, "relative_strength": -18.381471, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.856382, "energy": 6.67803, "activity_lines": [ 128.413979, 128.848144, 127.395517, 127.452095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.559998, "volume": 943, "typical_volume": 599.85, "trend": 127.618766, "fair_value": 136.164574, "relative_strength": -19.782525, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.079284, "energy": 8.005013, "activity_lines": [ 127.23859, 128.336247, 127.332295, 127.332066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }