{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c92934d5-7a61-4b42-834a-1a3a0975da26", "symbol": "POS", "name": "Plexus Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.573, "architecture_energy": 37.645, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.729, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.83, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 23.54, "deceleration": 46.72, "rotation_down": 34.36, "downward_expansion": 62.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.031033, 0.030445, 0.031217, 0.034581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0315, "trend_reference": 0.040975, "distance_from_trend": -0.231239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.102833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.693678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.78845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.496, "excess_performance": -0.547235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.693678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.457884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052487, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.170188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 513620, "relative_activity": 0.258178, "balance": 1.170188, "dry_up": 0.738864, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083858, "annualized_volatility": 0.843337, "from_high_reference": -0.644068, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.040975, "fair_value_reference": 0.102833, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.056648, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": -0.060025, "regime_survival": 0.931818, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.438095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.121252, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.164568, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.517949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.259735, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.320218, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.758974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 2058105.9, "trend": 0.043125, "fair_value": 0.102916, "relative_strength": -47.513818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.545028, "energy": 59.25436, "activity_lines": [ 0.029967, 0.030045, 0.03165, 0.036025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 349898, "typical_volume": 2037473.1, "trend": 0.042258, "fair_value": 0.102871, "relative_strength": -46.88719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.488198, "energy": 46.491981, "activity_lines": [ 0.030533, 0.030227, 0.031383, 0.035275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 513620, "typical_volume": 1989406.45, "trend": 0.040975, "fair_value": 0.102833, "relative_strength": -45.78845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.572985, "energy": 37.64549, "activity_lines": [ 0.031033, 0.030445, 0.031217, 0.034581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }