{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c92af7c5-0800-4c13-9a39-4e0188c9085e", "symbol": "SDF", "name": "K+S Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.88, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.426, "architecture_energy": 27.2, "architecture_maturity": 47.94, "architecture_confidence": 52.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.49, "rotation_up": 36.42, "upward_expansion": 18.61, "deceleration": 46.07, "rotation_down": 24.68, "downward_expansion": 57.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.364, 14.034909, 14.282957, 14.555324 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.44, "trend_reference": 14.674724, "distance_from_trend": -0.015995, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.168372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.556203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029511, "excess_performance": -0.035129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096567, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029511, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2979036, "relative_activity": 0.681462, "balance": 1.581518, "dry_up": 0.935123, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054478, "annualized_volatility": 0.475534, "from_high_reference": -0.223873, "from_low_reference": 0.401527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.674724, "fair_value_reference": 13.168372, "structural_low": 12.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.00494, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.151278, "worst_return": -0.188861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00313, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.07603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.127631, "worst_return": -0.121036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042335, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.091537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330106, "worst_return": -0.056532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -37.801666, "energy": 58.207907, "activity_lines": [ 13.470667, 13.963779, 14.618229, 14.653282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.14, "volume": 3038701, "typical_volume": 5467517.4, "trend": 14.399872, "fair_value": 13.222164, "relative_strength": -5.149238, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.684873, "energy": 61.580727, "activity_lines": [ 13.316, 13.730548, 14.44138, 14.574568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.34, "volume": 4500443, "typical_volume": 5443979.95, "trend": 14.474378, "fair_value": 13.207574, "relative_strength": 4.604427, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.019127, "energy": 41.818873, "activity_lines": [ 13.632, 13.765455, 14.384933, 14.570705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.4, "volume": 4240681, "typical_volume": 5360547.45, "trend": 14.548229, "fair_value": 13.196432, "relative_strength": 4.05486, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.251902, "energy": 20.234722, "activity_lines": [ 13.922667, 13.829273, 14.336972, 14.565907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.56, "volume": 4631538, "typical_volume": 4868249.45, "trend": 14.615799, "fair_value": 13.183252, "relative_strength": 3.010057, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.779764, "energy": 22.372531, "activity_lines": [ 14.206667, 13.941636, 14.307067, 14.566666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.44, "volume": 2979036, "typical_volume": 4371536.15, "trend": 14.674724, "fair_value": 13.168372, "relative_strength": -0.556203, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.42551, "energy": 27.200205, "activity_lines": [ 14.364, 14.034909, 14.282957, 14.555324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }