{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c92c5782-f8c2-4886-b72a-b54a5df9d236", "symbol": "NVMI", "name": "Nova Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.073, "architecture_energy": 67.323, "architecture_maturity": 79.463, "architecture_confidence": 95.389, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.83, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.18, "rotation_down": 58.64, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1288.973333, 1379.225455, 40270.920952, 67106.342796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1204.1, "trend_reference": 97103.353333, "distance_from_trend": -0.9876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78957.247436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.895563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991114, "excess_performance": -1.020014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.9876, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.862699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.039541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 509983, "relative_activity": 2.034912, "balance": 0.62376, "dry_up": 1.709182, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 13.291447, "annualized_volatility": 6.367444, "from_high_reference": -0.992677, "from_low_reference": 0.063881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97103.353333, "fair_value_reference": 78957.247436, "structural_low": 1131.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.081775, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.096166, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.234393, "worst_return": -0.166153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.202666, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.184452, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.468788, "worst_return": -0.175234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.203575, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002448, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.402362, "worst_return": -0.193232, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 238603.4, "trend": 107977.67, "fair_value": 79779.808333, "relative_strength": -98.818323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.981293, "energy": 87.985142, "activity_lines": [ 1442.706667, 17461.274545, 65414.671905, 87088.735699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1421.0, "volume": 325188, "typical_volume": 239841.45, "trend": 104525.036667, "fair_value": 79514.430128, "relative_strength": -98.776808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.329564, "energy": 68.220297, "activity_lines": [ 1418.1, 9370.0, 56410.385714, 80214.111828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1225.4, "volume": 442184, "typical_volume": 243135.3, "trend": 101074.883333, "fair_value": 79240.939103, "relative_strength": -98.895556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.28721, "energy": 67.75229, "activity_lines": [ 1345.766667, 4080.052727, 48025.561429, 73549.61914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1204.1, "volume": 509983, "typical_volume": 250616.75, "trend": 97103.353333, "fair_value": 78957.247436, "relative_strength": -98.895563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.073446, "energy": 67.323116, "activity_lines": [ 1288.973333, 1379.225455, 40270.920952, 67106.342796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }