{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c92e8c56-39f0-49f2-9efd-6d4f0bd657cb", "symbol": "002377", "name": "Hubei Guochuang Hi-tech Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.185, "architecture_energy": 65.222, "architecture_maturity": 25.333, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.25, "rotation_up": 19.06, "upward_expansion": 14.54, "deceleration": 40.39, "rotation_down": 57.66, "downward_expansion": 85.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.565333, 2.625818, 2.822619, 2.974839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.6, "trend_reference": 3.116333, "distance_from_trend": -0.165686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.759359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.556728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190031, "excess_performance": -0.197431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190031, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223267, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94538600, "relative_activity": 0.705593, "balance": 0.223267, "dry_up": 0.905641, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101183, "annualized_volatility": 0.42817, "from_high_reference": -0.335038, "from_low_reference": 0.097046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.116333, "fair_value_reference": 2.759359, "structural_low": 2.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00365, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000401, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.483444, "worst_return": -0.416988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.038843, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.027747, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.140351, "worst_return": -0.196911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045481, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.764045, "worst_return": -0.312741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -64.887138, "energy": 51.94735, "activity_lines": [ 2.712667, 2.765455, 2.986286, 3.094538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.43, "volume": 127010290, "typical_volume": 137885173.75, "trend": 3.137, "fair_value": 2.757179, "relative_strength": -22.24432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.220834, "energy": 53.68669, "activity_lines": [ 2.620667, 2.687455, 2.917381, 3.047871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.53, "volume": 102054214, "typical_volume": 136205422.95, "trend": 3.125, "fair_value": 2.758333, "relative_strength": -17.173928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.078805, "energy": 65.668741, "activity_lines": [ 2.58, 2.644364, 2.864143, 3.00871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.6, "volume": 94538600, "typical_volume": 133984682.85, "trend": 3.116333, "fair_value": 2.759359, "relative_strength": -18.556728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.184725, "energy": 65.222391, "activity_lines": [ 2.565333, 2.625818, 2.822619, 2.974839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }