{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c92f4009-788f-45e9-81ae-3fa4d2c2110e", "symbol": "AGI", "name": "Alamos Gold Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.059, "architecture_energy": 55.749, "architecture_maturity": 38.688, "architecture_confidence": 94.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 24.7, "upward_expansion": 9.55, "deceleration": 53.37, "rotation_down": 55.31, "downward_expansion": 82.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.213332, 42.851085, 47.318658, 50.955854 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.259998, "trend_reference": 54.639644, "distance_from_trend": -0.153362, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.966008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.982878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156391, "excess_performance": -0.276812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.524186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675471, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7439900, "relative_activity": 1.727229, "balance": 0.675471, "dry_up": 1.476493, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107923, "annualized_volatility": 0.700799, "from_high_reference": -0.389057, "from_low_reference": 0.328891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.639644, "fair_value_reference": 33.966008, "structural_low": 38.029999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042602, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026401, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107204, "worst_return": -0.059075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032417, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049167, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.165385, "worst_return": -0.041353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185813, "worst_return": -0.072429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161353, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.182952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"typical_volume": 4143355.0, "trend": 55.932195, "fair_value": 33.452211, "relative_strength": -29.596782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.475511, "energy": 82.872799, "activity_lines": [ 42.281999, 45.050644, 50.473616, 53.504646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.73, "volume": 5901800, "typical_volume": 4154570.0, "trend": 55.490338, "fair_value": 33.61782, "relative_strength": -25.915405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.862647, "energy": 74.143103, "activity_lines": [ 41.935333, 43.961939, 49.245581, 52.588376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.959999, "volume": 6121000, "typical_volume": 4210085.0, "trend": 55.033751, "fair_value": 33.768769, "relative_strength": -30.419268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.922561, "energy": 80.272266, "activity_lines": [ 40.677999, 42.615463, 47.877381, 51.521902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.259998, "volume": 7439900, "typical_volume": 4307420.0, "trend": 54.639644, "fair_value": 33.966008, "relative_strength": -19.982878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.059038, "energy": 55.749213, "activity_lines": [ 42.213332, 42.851085, 47.318658, 50.955854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }