{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c92f970a-28d7-472e-8d7a-89e94e3b3fd8", "symbol": "MCHS", "name": "MATTHEWS CHINA DISCOVERY ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.933, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.106, "architecture_energy": 25.278, "architecture_maturity": 62.865, "architecture_confidence": 90.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.43, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 42.61, "deceleration": 87.85, "rotation_down": 48.68, "downward_expansion": 36.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.720773, 43.823367, 44.416967, 43.25557 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.42, "trend_reference": 41.453767, "distance_from_trend": 0.023309, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.850232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.768623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179746, "excess_performance": -0.007708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.657842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46373, "relative_activity": 0.829319, "balance": 0.657842, "dry_up": 1.145301, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084299, "annualized_volatility": 0.388124, "from_high_reference": -0.20338, "from_low_reference": 0.401174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.453767, "fair_value_reference": 29.850232, "structural_low": 35.36, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060956, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.18627, "worst_return": -0.022369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.204562, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.100571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30661, "worst_return": 0.102515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.317837, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.244647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317837, "worst_return": 0.317837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"typical_volume": 44839.0, "trend": 40.390307, "fair_value": 29.504328, "relative_strength": 11.284548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.215545, "energy": 56.473355, "activity_lines": [ 48.2382, 47.4457, 45.138157, 43.156937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.78, "volume": 125490, "typical_volume": 50438.65, "trend": 40.67064, "fair_value": 29.58975, "relative_strength": -0.214291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.591571, "energy": 22.835086, "activity_lines": [ 45.80608, 46.345418, 44.932342, 43.182079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.2849, "volume": 8209, "typical_volume": 50151.45, "trend": 40.94624, "fair_value": 29.677684, "relative_strength": 2.422376, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.872922, "energy": 19.452469, "activity_lines": [ 43.79192, 45.41626, 44.77262, 43.221708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.2294, "volume": 76095, "typical_volume": 53671.25, "trend": 41.17831, "fair_value": 29.756428, "relative_strength": -0.910675, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.509205, "energy": 24.889215, "activity_lines": [ 42.046633, 44.365962, 44.496519, 43.175461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.42, "volume": 46373, "typical_volume": 55916.95, "trend": 41.453767, "fair_value": 29.850232, "relative_strength": -0.768623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.106342, "energy": 25.277959, "activity_lines": [ 41.720773, 43.823367, 44.416967, 43.25557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }