{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9352e59-b39b-4279-97af-8c9c5643de97", "symbol": "KEQU", "name": "Kewaunee Scientific Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.705, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.451, "architecture_energy": 19.981, "architecture_maturity": 29.049, "architecture_confidence": 86.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.17, "rotation_up": 20.69, "upward_expansion": 8.06, "deceleration": 49.56, "rotation_down": 42.58, "downward_expansion": 67.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.60832, 36.669795, 37.086031, 37.213876 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.08, "trend_reference": 37.782187, "distance_from_trend": -0.018585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.819185, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.802951, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090508, "excess_performance": -0.277961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018585, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086529, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26583, "relative_activity": 1.281905, "balance": 0.608772, "dry_up": 1.274817, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072397, "annualized_volatility": 0.351129, "from_high_reference": -0.391043, "from_low_reference": 0.114417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.782187, "fair_value_reference": 38.819185, "structural_low": 33.273, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027975, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.053161, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.529116, "worst_return": -0.172813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041442, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.30266, "worst_return": -0.080341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.110773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399222, "worst_return": -0.078361, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006983, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062201, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072304, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.1201, "volume": 6489, "typical_volume": 7223.1, "trend": 15.82355, "fair_value": 14.030892, "relative_strength": -21.123479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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27.392658, "activity_lines": [ 36.596267, 37.259045, 37.152328, 37.509451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.11, "volume": 12457, "typical_volume": 22950.35, "trend": 37.921853, "fair_value": 38.417454, "relative_strength": -17.761329, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.351703, "energy": 17.217408, "activity_lines": [ 37.075947, 37.334415, 37.241778, 37.521203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.01, "volume": 52858, "typical_volume": 25094.85, "trend": 37.85552, "fair_value": 38.547903, "relative_strength": -19.83779, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.752316, "energy": 23.290729, "activity_lines": [ 36.763627, 37.007965, 37.147322, 37.397857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.72, "volume": 13846, "typical_volume": 21145.05, "trend": 37.796187, "fair_value": 38.680018, "relative_strength": -19.80573, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.595393, "energy": 25.423545, "activity_lines": [ 36.455973, 36.676607, 37.053058, 37.260082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.08, "volume": 26583, "typical_volume": 20737.1, "trend": 37.782187, "fair_value": 38.819185, "relative_strength": -19.802951, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.451456, "energy": 19.980776, "activity_lines": [ 36.60832, 36.669795, 37.086031, 37.213876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }