{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c942b1fb-b466-4882-aeb9-8e44bac6caeb", "symbol": "PTN", "name": "Patronus Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.885, "architecture_energy": 53.271, "architecture_maturity": 90.159, "architecture_confidence": 90.284, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 9.2, "deceleration": 60.45, "rotation_down": 48.02, "downward_expansion": 80.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0454, 0.045709, 0.049271, 0.05383 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.060033, "distance_from_trend": -0.200444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.061397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.218208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.600428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272727, "excess_performance": -0.336433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125091, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.218208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140933, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4328416, "relative_activity": 0.942909, "balance": 0.43331, "dry_up": 0.682598, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104167, "annualized_volatility": 0.614284, "from_high_reference": -0.52, "from_low_reference": 0.170732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.060033, "fair_value_reference": 0.061397, "structural_low": 0.041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.054054, "positive_rate": 0.225806, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": -0.052088, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.339623, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.076981, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.340909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098635, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.124916, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.070175, "worst_return": -0.39726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116883, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213115, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.052457, 0.057172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.043, "volume": 2166674, "typical_volume": 5181523.65, "trend": 0.0619, "fair_value": 0.061288, "relative_strength": -35.130538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.921885, "energy": 62.566439, "activity_lines": [ 0.045467, 0.046436, 0.051086, 0.055888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.043, "volume": 3134014, "typical_volume": 4924314.65, "trend": 0.061, "fair_value": 0.061346, "relative_strength": -36.167446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.61594, "energy": 61.476905, "activity_lines": [ 0.044667, 0.045491, 0.049876, 0.054669 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 4328416, "typical_volume": 4590491.05, "trend": 0.060033, "fair_value": 0.061397, "relative_strength": -30.600428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.885227, "energy": 53.270615, "activity_lines": [ 0.0454, 0.045709, 0.049271, 0.05383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }