{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c944ff79-a261-4bd5-bebf-536d997c8837", "symbol": "NVAX", "name": "Novavax Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.761, "architecture_energy": 61.505, "architecture_maturity": 16.609, "architecture_confidence": 86.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.43, "rotation_up": 11.58, "upward_expansion": 15.54, "deceleration": 34.86, "rotation_down": 66.1, "downward_expansion": 84.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.810667, 8.315818, 8.714381, 8.827613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.95, "trend_reference": 8.908667, "distance_from_trend": -0.107611, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.288942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.311739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036364, "excess_performance": -0.223817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276188, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699794, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20069500, "relative_activity": 0.972554, "balance": 0.699794, "dry_up": 0.769794, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157726, "annualized_volatility": 0.673463, "from_high_reference": -0.33584, "from_low_reference": 0.282258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.908667, "fair_value_reference": 8.288942, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.085603, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065207, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.324398, "worst_return": -0.420424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.130124, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131671, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 1.978723, "worst_return": -0.647402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.363691, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.281048, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.746809, "worst_return": -0.789426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.298856, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.316461, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.699387, "worst_return": -0.851413, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.173554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.282463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019635, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", 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22991498.0, "trend": 8.807, "fair_value": 8.294263, "relative_strength": -4.385128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.134134, "energy": 11.86127, "activity_lines": [ 9.292667, 9.388727, 9.209786, 9.117376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.21, "volume": 14860077, "typical_volume": 21522242.15, "trend": 8.858667, "fair_value": 8.294647, "relative_strength": -12.12186, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.833438, "energy": 7.806289, "activity_lines": [ 8.965333, 9.157818, 9.11481, 9.07886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.46, "volume": 13764597, "typical_volume": 21077845.05, "trend": 8.879667, "fair_value": 8.289904, "relative_strength": -18.582211, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.219403, "energy": 31.137162, "activity_lines": [ 8.432667, 8.825091, 8.957595, 8.988624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.32, "volume": 14847302, "typical_volume": 20778635.15, "trend": 8.886, "fair_value": 8.28516, "relative_strength": -20.404154, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.704789, "energy": 47.550031, "activity_lines": [ 7.964667, 8.496, 8.799048, 8.888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.95, "volume": 20069500, "typical_volume": 20635876.2, "trend": 8.908667, "fair_value": 8.288942, "relative_strength": -17.311739, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.761429, "energy": 61.504887, "activity_lines": [ 7.810667, 8.315818, 8.714381, 8.827613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }