{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c94b3392-a0bf-4e8b-b060-e0b7a01bd686", "symbol": "600246", "name": "Vantone Neo Development Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.794, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.918, "architecture_energy": 22.528, "architecture_maturity": 35.963, "architecture_confidence": 90.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.77, "rotation_up": 17.24, "upward_expansion": 49.66, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 47.29, "downward_expansion": 29.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.414667, 15.166909, 15.031667, 14.128452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.6, "trend_reference": 13.256667, "distance_from_trend": -0.049535, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.799038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.130512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013677, "excess_performance": 0.05688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.431975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.997345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 622055832, "relative_activity": 1.132804, "balance": 1.997345, "dry_up": 1.438139, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.268559, "annualized_volatility": 0.940378, "from_high_reference": -0.408728, "from_low_reference": 0.839416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.256667, "fair_value_reference": 8.799038, "structural_low": 8.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.028517, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.045601, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.143713, "worst_return": -0.201931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.096944, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.09052, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.093991, "worst_return": -0.179577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004847, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026558, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.970724, "worst_return": -0.315844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005394, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179756, "worst_return": -0.364852, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.288149, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.280925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057276, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", 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8.595577, "relative_strength": 60.928817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.950326, "energy": 60.381264, "activity_lines": [ 18.250666, 17.466363, 15.062381, 14.037699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.530001, "volume": 850261371, "typical_volume": 469127235.3, "trend": 13.268, "fair_value": 8.671282, "relative_strength": 48.64293, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.432557, "energy": 47.452704, "activity_lines": [ 18.103333, 17.659273, 15.454524, 14.32286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.52, "volume": 1008711538, "typical_volume": 503353645.4, "trend": 13.318667, "fair_value": 8.721538, "relative_strength": 12.014522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.551407, "energy": 21.606933, "activity_lines": [ 16.522, 17.027454, 15.440476, 14.339118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.7, "volume": 677869243, "typical_volume": 525167744.55, "trend": 13.246667, "fair_value": 8.754808, "relative_strength": -12.185172, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.412536, "energy": 12.780779, "activity_lines": [ 14.342667, 15.879091, 15.145286, 14.170172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.6, "volume": 622055832, "typical_volume": 549129419.85, "trend": 13.256667, "fair_value": 8.799038, "relative_strength": -0.130512, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.917553, "energy": 22.527816, "activity_lines": [ 13.414667, 15.166909, 15.031667, 14.128452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }