{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c94bb9b4-2445-464c-a0d9-70bed2ddfd45", "symbol": "002549", "name": "Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.951, "architecture_energy": 73.519, "architecture_maturity": 55.94, "architecture_confidence": 87.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.47, "rotation_up": 9.54, "upward_expansion": 16.76, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 72.58, "downward_expansion": 90.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.774, 15.058545, 16.301388, 17.21146 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.4, "trend_reference": 18.562588, "distance_from_trend": -0.224246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.870457, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.715631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310639, "excess_performance": -0.318039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100409, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.287156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.415965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175550449, "relative_activity": 0.94157, "balance": 0.415965, "dry_up": 1.16946, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175606, "annualized_volatility": 0.573393, "from_high_reference": -0.518596, "from_low_reference": 0.258023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.562588, "fair_value_reference": 11.870457, "structural_low": 11.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.06465, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.708333, "median_excess_return": -0.053969, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.387755, "worst_return": -0.310163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025117, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07155, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.464706, "worst_return": -0.433036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.246595, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.186055, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.24902, "worst_return": -0.467282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 78.050681, "activity_lines": [ 13.964667, 15.324545, 16.594919, 17.494548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.4, "volume": 175550449, "typical_volume": 186444348.95, "trend": 18.562588, "fair_value": 11.870457, "relative_strength": -28.715631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.951276, "energy": 73.518782, "activity_lines": [ 13.774, 15.058545, 16.301388, 17.21146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }