{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c950f749-15c6-4d59-901a-3b925ae1aaf9", "symbol": "FLXE", "name": "Franklin EM Multi-Factor Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.376, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.633, "architecture_energy": 42.657, "architecture_maturity": 57.199, "architecture_confidence": 65.859, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.6, "rotation_up": 49.64, "upward_expansion": 78.52, "deceleration": 65.52, "rotation_down": 25.54, "downward_expansion": 5.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.745333, 34.628909, 34.407167, 33.948613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.169998, "trend_reference": 33.346, "distance_from_trend": 0.054699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.205577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.98147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085997, "excess_performance": -0.084895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085997, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.935284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2086, "relative_activity": 0.94644, "balance": 1.935284, "dry_up": 1.54477, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02384, "annualized_volatility": 0.145126, "from_high_reference": -0.010411, "from_low_reference": 0.269446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.346, "fair_value_reference": 27.205577, "structural_low": 30.424999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.006788, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004283, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053552, "worst_return": -0.07851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.027731, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.018348, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.080805, "worst_return": -0.08878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045397, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.018848, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.136579, "worst_return": -0.110239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 34.474998, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 2004.9, "trend": 32.535833, "fair_value": 26.811154, "relative_strength": -4.510407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.038347, "energy": 46.857015, "activity_lines": [ 34.492333, 34.458727, 33.877071, 33.378903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.610001, "volume": 5423, "typical_volume": 1885.2, "trend": 32.718333, "fair_value": 26.892083, "relative_strength": -3.696958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.291472, "energy": 45.190062, "activity_lines": [ 34.535666, 34.506182, 33.994119, 33.51272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.115002, "volume": 3096, "typical_volume": 1993.05, "trend": 32.8745, "fair_value": 26.970032, "relative_strength": -3.67359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.215203, "energy": 30.749366, "activity_lines": [ 34.373334, 34.439182, 34.059167, 33.602828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.75, "volume": 5072, "typical_volume": 2085.3, "trend": 33.048333, "fair_value": 27.046154, "relative_strength": -1.719573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.812851, "energy": 36.013449, "activity_lines": [ 34.471667, 34.497546, 34.181833, 33.723828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.560001, "volume": 3365, "typical_volume": 2205.95, "trend": 33.1975, "fair_value": 27.12125, "relative_strength": -2.890926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.375985, "energy": 33.769383, "activity_lines": [ 34.522667, 34.510364, 34.272453, 33.821355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.169998, "volume": 2086, "typical_volume": 2204.05, "trend": 33.346, "fair_value": 27.205577, "relative_strength": -3.98147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.632702, "energy": 42.656925, "activity_lines": [ 34.745333, 34.628909, 34.407167, 33.948613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }