{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c95acc9f-a2b8-48be-8629-4499c8fbefd1", "symbol": "CHEMFAB", "name": "Chemfab Alkalis Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.669, "architecture_energy": 25.495, "architecture_maturity": 31.759, "architecture_confidence": 80.523, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.41, "rotation_up": 15.79, "upward_expansion": 8.48, "deceleration": 57.01, "rotation_down": 50.22, "downward_expansion": 69.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 370.520003, 372.142728, 384.795951, 384.725806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 369.0, "trend_reference": 386.853334, "distance_from_trend": -0.04615, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 620.704582, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.405514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.148265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077385, "excess_performance": -0.033676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.405514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.319552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10558, "relative_activity": 0.324991, "balance": 0.319552, "dry_up": 0.387755, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085241, "annualized_volatility": 0.431734, "from_high_reference": -0.516125, "from_low_reference": 0.27088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 386.853334, "fair_value_reference": 620.704582, "structural_low": 290.350006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057336, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.064198, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.238016, "worst_return": -0.17632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.110945, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.138892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21157, "worst_return": -0.167965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050686, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.34714, 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"direction": -46.952501, "energy": 37.437244, "activity_lines": [ 368.966667, 376.15818, 387.334998, 386.995698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 374.700012, "volume": 13719, "typical_volume": 34322.2, "trend": 388.573334, "fair_value": 620.410731, "relative_strength": -18.309528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.638499, "energy": 25.564236, "activity_lines": [ 371.016671, 374.396365, 386.376666, 385.988602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 369.0, "volume": 10558, "typical_volume": 32487.05, "trend": 386.853334, "fair_value": 620.704582, "relative_strength": -19.148265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.669275, "energy": 25.495453, "activity_lines": [ 370.520003, 372.142728, 384.795951, 384.725806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }