{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c95de6eb-689e-44fb-98dd-74cddb342d01", "symbol": "ALWF", "name": "WINFARM Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.307, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.658, "architecture_energy": 18.357, "architecture_maturity": 59.792, "architecture_confidence": 68.291, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.23, "rotation_up": 34.77, "upward_expansion": 19.82, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 56.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.996, 3.958909, 3.985286, 4.015355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.05, "trend_reference": 4.090667, "distance_from_trend": -0.009941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.632051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125657, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.698262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113786, "excess_performance": -0.167097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000163, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125657, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167244, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113786, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.930884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3428, "relative_activity": 0.369512, "balance": 3.930884, "dry_up": 1.45463, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030579, "annualized_volatility": 0.193307, "from_high_reference": -0.227099, "from_low_reference": 0.140845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.090667, "fair_value_reference": 4.632051, "structural_low": 3.74, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.00523, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.032178, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.435737, "worst_return": -0.458361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095837, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.402685, "worst_return": -0.628571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.101483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.177194, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.251678, "worst_return": -0.561039, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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34.481423, "activity_lines": [ 3.998, 4.031818, 4.040667, 4.085505 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.88, "volume": 895, "typical_volume": 9374.95, "trend": 4.103, "fair_value": 5.057308, "relative_strength": -6.577361, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.635024, "energy": 53.473843, "activity_lines": [ 3.949333, 3.999636, 4.02019, 4.070817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.87, "volume": 255, "typical_volume": 8871.1, "trend": 4.098, "fair_value": 4.985962, "relative_strength": -8.014664, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.060353, "energy": 69.932439, "activity_lines": [ 3.906667, 3.969636, 4.002048, 4.055785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.86, "volume": 4034, "typical_volume": 8132.9, "trend": 4.092333, "fair_value": 4.918077, "relative_strength": -6.347237, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.479939, "energy": 72.734876, "activity_lines": [ 3.88, 3.941636, 3.985762, 4.04043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.95, "volume": 14791, "typical_volume": 8100.6, "trend": 4.091333, "fair_value": 4.847885, "relative_strength": -4.121492, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.17122, "energy": 60.1269, "activity_lines": [ 3.897333, 3.936, 3.980524, 4.031247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.99, "volume": 26025, "typical_volume": 9065.75, "trend": 4.092667, "fair_value": 4.774744, "relative_strength": -3.47241, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.220668, "energy": 39.5625, "activity_lines": [ 3.93, 3.939455, 3.979952, 4.02471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.99, "volume": 9735, "typical_volume": 9325.2, "trend": 4.092333, "fair_value": 4.703526, "relative_strength": -4.931517, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.758359, "energy": 21.232735, "activity_lines": [ 3.956667, 3.943455, 3.979619, 4.018086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.05, "volume": 3428, "typical_volume": 9277.1, "trend": 4.090667, "fair_value": 4.632051, "relative_strength": -5.698262, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.658472, "energy": 18.356614, "activity_lines": [ 3.996, 3.958909, 3.985286, 4.015355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }