{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9627aec-da6d-4377-8040-5a8caf86b28e", "symbol": "300990", "name": "Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.26, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.336, "architecture_energy": 27.428, "architecture_maturity": 35.764, "architecture_confidence": 65.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.61, "rotation_up": 19.95, "upward_expansion": 19.56, "deceleration": 66.36, "rotation_down": 60.62, "downward_expansion": 39.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.167331, 87.007999, 88.129396, 87.623764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 73.849998, "trend_reference": 87.355623, "distance_from_trend": -0.154605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.059081, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.767303, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126261, "excess_performance": -0.133661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.097457, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37059020, "relative_activity": 1.444767, "balance": 1.097457, "dry_up": 1.677108, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228998, "annualized_volatility": 0.752676, "from_high_reference": -0.413842, "from_low_reference": 0.322478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.355623, "fair_value_reference": 53.059081, "structural_low": 59.810001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.050683, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.012881, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.19622, "worst_return": -0.34471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037962, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.04965, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.324706, "worst_return": -0.390275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.242584, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10117, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.138247, "worst_return": -0.34692, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155363, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.519554, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.392647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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15.004353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.637741, "energy": 57.294602, "activity_lines": [ 100.348, 96.258363, 91.808766, 90.100142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.739998, "volume": 42923441, "typical_volume": 24329640.25, "trend": 88.84975, "fair_value": 52.755516, "relative_strength": 7.706695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.863421, "energy": 25.940774, "activity_lines": [ 95.992666, 95.147454, 91.695687, 90.059357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.129997, "volume": 37282767, "typical_volume": 24911375.15, "trend": 87.881949, "fair_value": 52.868675, "relative_strength": -18.919312, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.623277, "energy": 15.925327, "activity_lines": [ 84.867331, 89.970726, 89.443325, 88.529051 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.849998, "volume": 37059020, "typical_volume": 25650520.9, "trend": 87.355623, "fair_value": 53.059081, "relative_strength": -12.767303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.335742, "energy": 27.428232, "activity_lines": [ 79.167331, 87.007999, 88.129396, 87.623764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }