{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c973b706-727e-4dd2-bc90-be9c75250cc3", "symbol": "002973", "name": "QiaoYin City Management Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.486, "architecture_energy": 55.461, "architecture_maturity": 52.24, "architecture_confidence": 81.736, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 15.37, "upward_expansion": 8.42, "deceleration": 53.33, "rotation_down": 68.53, "downward_expansion": 84.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.947825, 10.32208, 11.31321, 11.948998 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.22, "trend_reference": 12.751499, "distance_from_trend": -0.120103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.68616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.03989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.364422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208745, "excess_performance": -0.216144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.03989, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068417, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60377975, "relative_activity": 2.593013, "balance": 0.828175, "dry_up": 1.800082, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115596, "annualized_volatility": 0.529714, "from_high_reference": -0.335702, "from_low_reference": 0.292627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.751499, "fair_value_reference": 11.68616, "structural_low": 8.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.021622, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.00835, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.163175, "worst_return": -0.232476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015474, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.051123, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.429836, "worst_return": -0.285329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005803, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.070125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228013, "worst_return": -0.086409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 10.047371, "volume": 44545599, "typical_volume": 21347915.35, "trend": 13.233499, "fair_value": 11.744494, "relative_strength": -34.942264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.321008, "energy": 85.622923, "activity_lines": [ 10.837962, 11.672987, 12.321448, 12.781385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.06, "volume": 40215900, "typical_volume": 22079863.75, "trend": 13.127166, "fair_value": 11.736557, "relative_strength": -27.805266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.047267, "energy": 86.103535, "activity_lines": [ 10.438297, 11.277988, 12.054281, 12.576643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.01, "volume": 35415900, "typical_volume": 20614663.25, "trend": 12.978166, "fair_value": 11.715333, "relative_strength": -34.927862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.807224, "energy": 91.259977, "activity_lines": [ 9.861351, 10.738079, 11.713448, 12.311019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.98, "volume": 31649000, "typical_volume": 21192091.15, "trend": 12.833166, "fair_value": 11.694353, "relative_strength": -33.408298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.022051, "energy": 89.943047, "activity_lines": [ 9.472908, 10.281989, 11.395186, 12.053073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.22, "volume": 60377975, "typical_volume": 23284874.9, "trend": 12.751499, "fair_value": 11.68616, "relative_strength": -20.364422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.486459, "energy": 55.460785, "activity_lines": [ 9.947825, 10.32208, 11.31321, 11.948998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }