{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c976f62b-99c4-4cde-919c-f705c9255477", "symbol": "IG", "name": "Italgas S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.132, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.827, "architecture_energy": 82.734, "architecture_maturity": 12.013, "architecture_confidence": 76.321, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.21, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 16.97, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 80.3, "downward_expansion": 90.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.3958, 9.779127, 9.946749, 9.959773 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.968, "trend_reference": 9.9663, "distance_from_trend": -0.100168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.433073, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.633542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102986, "excess_performance": -0.277233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102986, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.386603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.386603, "dry_up": 0.685579, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044653, "annualized_volatility": 0.271519, "from_high_reference": -0.173449, "from_low_reference": 0.286377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.9663, "fair_value_reference": 6.433073, "structural_low": 8.804, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01434, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015601, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.08411, "worst_return": -0.08426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.062715, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047211, "worst_return": -0.121569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02534, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.020077, "worst_return": -0.030603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012839, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.0082, "worst_return": -0.017478, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027001, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020752, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.777566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002683, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.313475, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 4.547812, "fair_value": 4.300546, "relative_strength": -1.70848, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.550334, 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"close": 10.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 609.75, "trend": 10.008289, "fair_value": 6.374975, "relative_strength": -8.914207, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.475677, "energy": 19.848634, "activity_lines": [ 10.103533, 10.233691, 10.146786, 10.094975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.944, "volume": 1764, "typical_volume": 697.95, "trend": 9.999343, "fair_value": 6.404166, "relative_strength": -18.601128, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.605444, "energy": 43.938742, "activity_lines": [ 9.696467, 9.993036, 10.043503, 10.026311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.968, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 697.95, "trend": 9.9663, "fair_value": 6.433073, "relative_strength": -20.633542, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.826872, "energy": 82.733944, "activity_lines": [ 9.3958, 9.779127, 9.946749, 9.959773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }