{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c97b08b1-ca86-4f3d-bea3-30fcab9ca943", "symbol": "NCYT", "name": "Novacyt S.A.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.86, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.221, "architecture_energy": 14.19, "architecture_maturity": 22.908, "architecture_confidence": 43.725, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.54, "rotation_up": 42.19, "upward_expansion": 61.19, "deceleration": 58.38, "rotation_down": 23.1, "downward_expansion": 18.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3766, 0.368109, 0.378781, 0.371841 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.38, "trend_reference": 0.36355, "distance_from_trend": 0.045248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.486591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.115711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103048, "excess_performance": 0.051813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209212, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708327, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 214456, "relative_activity": 0.175202, "balance": 0.708327, "dry_up": 0.206144, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220826, "annualized_volatility": 0.964771, "from_high_reference": -0.55814, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.36355, "fair_value_reference": 0.486591, "structural_low": 0.266, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.048351, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.073863, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.004175, "worst_return": -0.40793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094643, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.14326, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.474227, "worst_return": -0.32593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119461, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.224615, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.220061, "worst_return": -0.600947, "sufficient": true }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.371663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165775, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.051546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.3452, 0.375891, 0.373379, 0.366774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4, "volume": 373260, "typical_volume": 1219610.25, "trend": 0.361783, "fair_value": 0.492066, "relative_strength": -0.81833, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.062149, "energy": 10.655748, "activity_lines": [ 0.3626, 0.375182, 0.376748, 0.369292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.38, "volume": 280993, "typical_volume": 1225651.0, "trend": 0.36225, "fair_value": 0.490681, "relative_strength": -6.496636, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.876884, "energy": 6.681527, "activity_lines": [ 0.3708, 0.372055, 0.37806, 0.370468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.366, "volume": 140613, "typical_volume": 1221514.6, "trend": 0.362467, "fair_value": 0.488899, "relative_strength": -10.583146, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.599234, "energy": 9.850209, "activity_lines": [ 0.372333, 0.367727, 0.377855, 0.37071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.38, "volume": 214456, "typical_volume": 1224050.75, "trend": 0.36355, "fair_value": 0.486591, "relative_strength": -7.115711, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.22119, "energy": 14.190198, "activity_lines": [ 0.3766, 0.368109, 0.378781, 0.371841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }