{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c97e190c-3cb2-47c9-82ba-502f6bc9144f", "symbol": "002966", "name": "Bank of Suzhou Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.352, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.782, "architecture_energy": 26.292, "architecture_maturity": 71.819, "architecture_confidence": 90.335, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.22, "rotation_up": 64.56, "upward_expansion": 36.96, "deceleration": 35.65, "rotation_down": 17.4, "downward_expansion": 26.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.154667, 7.883796, 7.938863, 8.019974 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.18, "trend_reference": 8.097156, "distance_from_trend": 0.010231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.309512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.813215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006075, "excess_performance": -0.013475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010231, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017261, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168154, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013727, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222992290, "relative_activity": 1.463853, "balance": 1.013727, "dry_up": 1.843277, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049761, "annualized_volatility": 0.239284, "from_high_reference": -0.064073, "from_low_reference": 0.157001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.097156, "fair_value_reference": 7.309512, "structural_low": 7.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003814, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032751, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.082043, "worst_return": -0.033708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052581, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.13652, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.113418, "worst_return": -0.037037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018321, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.191098, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162319, "worst_return": 0.014245, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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141028333.9, "trend": 8.096156, "fair_value": 7.278766, "relative_strength": -2.045036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.998904, "energy": 29.361333, "activity_lines": [ 7.709333, 7.673446, 7.884193, 7.989457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.49, "volume": 291783321, "typical_volume": 148334257.55, "trend": 8.100822, "fair_value": 7.295274, "relative_strength": 5.646828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.741331, "energy": 17.869068, "activity_lines": [ 8.029333, 7.809111, 7.926742, 8.014866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.18, "volume": 222992290, "typical_volume": 152332437.1, "trend": 8.097156, "fair_value": 7.309512, "relative_strength": -2.813215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.781771, "energy": 26.292116, "activity_lines": [ 8.154667, 7.883796, 7.938863, 8.019974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }