{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c97f3891-32c0-4a4c-9541-24cbbc5ee646", "symbol": "GRN", "name": "iPath Series B Carbon ETN", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.367, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.83, "architecture_energy": 77.48, "architecture_maturity": 9.398, "architecture_confidence": 75.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.79, "rotation_up": 73.59, "upward_expansion": 92.94, "deceleration": 43.32, "rotation_down": 13.53, "downward_expansion": 17.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.66614, 32.202487, 31.443046, 30.751246 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.2306, "trend_reference": 30.41755, "distance_from_trend": 0.092481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.894166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15008, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.444341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06656, "excess_performance": -0.059065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092481, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080882, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.822061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3548, "relative_activity": 1.06816, "balance": 8.822061, "dry_up": 0.913641, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033323, "annualized_volatility": 0.265792, "from_high_reference": -0.088324, "from_low_reference": 0.328161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.41755, "fair_value_reference": 28.894166, "structural_low": 25.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.024683, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.010014, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.13463, "worst_return": -0.266011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.033508, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039416, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.460965, "worst_return": -0.158048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004502, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.048186, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.554363, "worst_return": -0.109382, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 3520.6, "trend": 30.67094, "fair_value": 28.945047, "relative_strength": -7.246825, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.708654, "energy": 54.356017, "activity_lines": [ 31.553153, 31.246558, 30.439886, 30.229456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.5777, "volume": 1408, "typical_volume": 3326.9, "trend": 30.59003, "fair_value": 28.915897, "relative_strength": -5.74653, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.24933, "energy": 50.372367, "activity_lines": [ 31.598247, 31.364447, 30.628159, 30.287957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.1898, "volume": 6572, "typical_volume": 3445.85, "trend": 30.55119, "fair_value": 28.904517, "relative_strength": -0.354073, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.004165, "energy": 61.91055, "activity_lines": [ 32.12272, 31.741395, 30.950261, 30.455684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.3805, "volume": 611, "typical_volume": 3433.55, "trend": 30.478697, "fair_value": 28.901155, "relative_strength": -3.737483, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.914208, "energy": 66.216964, "activity_lines": [ 32.27274, 31.912771, 31.168505, 30.573704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.2306, "volume": 3548, "typical_volume": 3321.6, "trend": 30.41755, "fair_value": 28.894166, "relative_strength": -4.444341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.829868, "energy": 77.479581, "activity_lines": [ 32.66614, 32.202487, 31.443046, 30.751246 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }