{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c97fc2b2-326b-4bfc-bf4b-ea23aa2f8e5f", "symbol": "APLI", "name": "Appili Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.443, "architecture_energy": 74.911, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.733, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.26, "rotation_up": 11.73, "upward_expansion": 15.51, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 67.39, "downward_expansion": 84.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.013364, 0.01431, 0.01528 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.016833, "distance_from_trend": -0.405941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.028942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.654485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.53241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.6, "excess_performance": -0.720421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.405941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.654485, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.545324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.6, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.00462, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 302071, "relative_activity": 1.478552, "balance": 0.00462, "dry_up": 0.665218, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 1.476505, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.016833, "fair_value_reference": 0.028942, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.275, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.024977, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.529412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.026786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033656, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.529412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.082409, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.835714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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32.929082, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.015091, 0.015762, 0.016849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.015, "volume": 371002, "typical_volume": 180294.1, "trend": 0.018167, "fair_value": 0.030064, "relative_strength": -32.193491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.428946, "energy": 30.174386, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.015, 0.015619, 0.016624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 180094.1, "trend": 0.018, "fair_value": 0.029776, "relative_strength": -31.854948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.017131, "energy": 27.870193, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.015, 0.0155, 0.016419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 239050, "typical_volume": 191878.95, "trend": 0.0175, "fair_value": 0.029487, "relative_strength": -54.335325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.953476, "energy": 65.424169, "activity_lines": [ 0.013333, 0.014091, 0.014905, 0.015903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.015, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 191475.5, "trend": 0.017167, "fair_value": 0.029167, "relative_strength": -30.546781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.799694, "energy": 43.992217, "activity_lines": [ 0.013667, 0.014182, 0.014833, 0.015742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 302071, "typical_volume": 204301.9, "trend": 0.016833, "fair_value": 0.028942, "relative_strength": -54.53241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.44326, "energy": 74.910925, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.013364, 0.01431, 0.01528 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }