{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c980158b-d70a-4b2b-9851-3f3c98309c4b", "symbol": "URNU", "name": "Global X Uranium UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.799, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.531, "architecture_energy": 62.615, "architecture_maturity": 17.764, "architecture_confidence": 89.86, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.0, "rotation_up": 16.27, "upward_expansion": 12.01, "deceleration": 43.44, "rotation_down": 67.57, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.038166, 25.580318, 27.631512, 28.730597 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.2425, "trend_reference": 30.170583, "distance_from_trend": -0.097051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.417054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334301, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.311591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131436, "excess_performance": -0.182672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010655, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334301, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.466104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490788, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176378, "relative_activity": 0.851779, "balance": 0.490788, "dry_up": 0.916208, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089177, "annualized_volatility": 0.441325, "from_high_reference": -0.294419, "from_low_reference": 0.325347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.170583, "fair_value_reference": 20.417054, "structural_low": 22.504999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056542, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.077133, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.31252, "worst_return": -0.067981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.483542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.481316, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.677143, "worst_return": 0.28994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.714248, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.645516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.164874, "worst_return": 0.263622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.199334, 30.796864, 31.184857, 31.223828 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 28.727501, "volume": 12609, "typical_volume": 235000.35, "trend": 30.76975, "fair_value": 19.793135, "relative_strength": -4.534851, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.795056, "energy": 50.786856, "activity_lines": [ 28.869167, 30.238228, 30.918607, 31.102742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 26.440001, "volume": 20241, "typical_volume": 215226.55, "trend": 30.760917, "fair_value": 19.89, "relative_strength": -13.346076, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.254633, "energy": 63.16607, "activity_lines": [ 27.924667, 29.315501, 30.463107, 30.823403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.799999, "volume": 15033, "typical_volume": 208447.1, "trend": 30.709083, "fair_value": 19.991564, "relative_strength": -13.626947, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.627434, "energy": 72.946821, "activity_lines": [ 27.348834, 28.6115, 30.065345, 30.56786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.985001, "volume": 209982, "typical_volume": 206387.8, "trend": 30.677917, "fair_value": 20.084545, "relative_strength": -14.84877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.618083, "energy": 74.245899, "activity_lines": [ 26.785, 27.901773, 29.613631, 30.263081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.08, "volume": 200145, "typical_volume": 208416.05, "trend": 30.546583, "fair_value": 20.159346, "relative_strength": -24.86486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.491877, "energy": 87.983814, "activity_lines": [ 25.423167, 26.809091, 28.917917, 29.772893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.445, "volume": 217916, "typical_volume": 207386.0, "trend": 30.453333, "fair_value": 20.242718, "relative_strength": -21.224055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.758512, "energy": 83.202365, "activity_lines": [ 24.836, 26.169591, 28.401345, 29.379242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.469999, "volume": 164438, "typical_volume": 206716.35, "trend": 30.313167, "fair_value": 20.318622, "relative_strength": -25.144713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.756848, "energy": 85.690819, "activity_lines": [ 24.209333, 25.471091, 27.820202, 28.928704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.2425, "volume": 176378, "typical_volume": 207070.1, "trend": 30.170583, "fair_value": 20.417054, "relative_strength": -13.311591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.531452, "energy": 62.614604, "activity_lines": [ 25.038166, 25.580318, 27.631512, 28.730597 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }