{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9909244-8cec-4000-88fe-2183771368e6", "symbol": "BMH", "name": "Baumart Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.893, "architecture_energy": 23.249, "architecture_maturity": 73.049, "architecture_confidence": 88.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.92, "rotation_up": 25.3, "upward_expansion": 61.34, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.07, "downward_expansion": 16.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010467, 0.011127, 0.00939, 0.008488 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.0076, "distance_from_trend": 0.315789, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.051671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.806468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.689458, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.428571, "excess_performance": 0.364866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.315789, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163265, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.806468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092558, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156895, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.549943, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.428571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43782, "relative_activity": 0.310548, "balance": 0.201973, "dry_up": 2.294321, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.261538, "annualized_volatility": 2.170819, "from_high_reference": -0.583333, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0076, "fair_value_reference": 0.051671, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.155502, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.143432, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.227273, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.151509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.473684, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.426067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.473684, "worst_return": -0.473684, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-07-23", "end": "2021-08-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-08-20", "end": "2021-11-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-04-22", "end": "2022-07-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-07-29", "end": "2022-07-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-08-05", "end": "2022-08-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-08-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.404762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.725, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 438315, "typical_volume": 152426.4, "trend": 0.0074, "fair_value": 0.052825, "relative_strength": 21.354814, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.971897, "energy": 81.674988, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.011018, 0.008981, 0.008159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 227628, "typical_volume": 163807.8, "trend": 0.0075, "fair_value": 0.052248, "relative_strength": 18.970023, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.037538, "energy": 42.452133, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.011109, 0.009195, 0.008327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 43782, "typical_volume": 140983.2, "trend": 0.0076, "fair_value": 0.051671, "relative_strength": 15.689458, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.893488, "energy": 23.24862, "activity_lines": [ 0.010467, 0.011127, 0.00939, 0.008488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }