{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9982895-cd34-47a4-a59d-bf846d6732e2", "symbol": "LYINR", "name": "Amundi MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.256, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.412, "architecture_energy": 12.346, "architecture_maturity": 16.199, "architecture_confidence": 46.8, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.42, "rotation_up": 36.02, "upward_expansion": 37.28, "deceleration": 30.68, "rotation_down": 23.5, "downward_expansion": 43.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.463667, 29.359636, 29.170357, 29.187731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.93, "trend_reference": 29.502333, "distance_from_trend": 0.014496, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.109139, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.193634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.062196, "excess_performance": -0.14508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014496, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00533, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062196, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.829268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27979, "relative_activity": 0.586299, "balance": 4.829268, "dry_up": 0.262917, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02182, "annualized_volatility": 0.201134, "from_high_reference": -0.105098, "from_low_reference": 0.128157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.502333, "fair_value_reference": 31.109139, "structural_low": 26.530001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.013416, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.035033, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.03949, "worst_return": -0.10893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036095, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.036371, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.021712, "worst_return": -0.12441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024969, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.062337, "worst_return": -0.117071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029264, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.958119, "energy": 12.134077, "activity_lines": [ 29.238333, 29.029363, 28.953428, 29.323742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.465, "volume": 67610, "typical_volume": 70118.25, "trend": 29.920167, "fair_value": 31.029042, "relative_strength": -13.557915, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.946915, "energy": 15.866707, "activity_lines": [ 29.388666, 29.122272, 28.990881, 29.289021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.139999, "volume": 5337, "typical_volume": 68648.1, "trend": 29.796833, "fair_value": 31.045965, "relative_strength": -14.662185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.506657, "energy": 13.994102, "activity_lines": [ 29.344999, 29.146363, 29.007071, 29.238688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.700001, "volume": 9929, "typical_volume": 51254.6, "trend": 29.664, "fair_value": 31.060773, "relative_strength": -15.366708, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.578058, "energy": 11.809512, "activity_lines": [ 29.119, 29.096636, 28.991476, 29.167925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.615, "volume": 6942, "typical_volume": 48698.9, "trend": 29.574, "fair_value": 31.08369, "relative_strength": -12.334731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.116596, "energy": 4.578485, "activity_lines": [ 29.243333, 29.208182, 29.068928, 29.164763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.93, "volume": 27979, "typical_volume": 47721.4, "trend": 29.502333, "fair_value": 31.109139, "relative_strength": -12.193634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.412317, "energy": 12.345574, "activity_lines": [ 29.463667, 29.359636, 29.170357, 29.187731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }