{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9987ce3-3cdd-4542-95c8-e62e85dc068e", "symbol": "603011", "name": "Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.027, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.848, "architecture_energy": 46.968, "architecture_maturity": 11.195, "architecture_confidence": 51.027, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.14, "rotation_up": 6.09, "upward_expansion": 11.01, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 73.44, "downward_expansion": 72.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.931334, 23.786909, 24.693476, 24.521721 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.68, "trend_reference": 24.760333, "distance_from_trend": -0.084019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.129038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.727468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.276673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.023676, "excess_performance": 0.019528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.727468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002767, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023676, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 394135838, "relative_activity": 3.072731, "balance": 0.810127, "dry_up": 1.893934, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228632, "annualized_volatility": 1.029177, "from_high_reference": -0.426549, "from_low_reference": 0.564138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.760333, "fair_value_reference": 13.129038, "structural_low": 16.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056302, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.02438, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.506912, "worst_return": -0.015254, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.190932, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.187068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222034, "worst_return": 0.15983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.687276, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.740936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.687276, "worst_return": 0.687276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 50.201038, "energy": 43.234398, "activity_lines": [ 30.346, 29.735818, 26.725381, 25.995742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.25, "volume": 176029596, "typical_volume": 121973138.4, "trend": 25.173667, "fair_value": 12.899551, "relative_strength": -5.882081, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.409701, "energy": 15.099423, "activity_lines": [ 26.511334, 28.345637, 26.248619, 25.668258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.610001, "volume": 202972139, "typical_volume": 117978135.05, "trend": 25.003, "fair_value": 12.965192, "relative_strength": -19.247534, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.569177, "energy": 35.457765, "activity_lines": [ 22.520667, 26.501819, 25.546429, 25.18028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.91, "volume": 198593845, "typical_volume": 115880649.25, "trend": 24.794667, "fair_value": 13.027436, "relative_strength": -22.778674, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.066661, "energy": 48.254307, "activity_lines": [ 19.759334, 24.593455, 24.821334, 24.658151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.68, "volume": 394135838, "typical_volume": 128268885.95, "trend": 24.760333, "fair_value": 13.129038, "relative_strength": 0.276673, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.848481, "energy": 46.96771, "activity_lines": [ 19.931334, 23.786909, 24.693476, 24.521721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }