{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c99a87f4-42d9-4ef9-b895-c1b8b31e9bdd", "symbol": "MKC", "name": "McCormick & Company Incorporated", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.615, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.659, "architecture_energy": 7.587, "architecture_maturity": 28.41, "architecture_confidence": 64.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.0, "rotation_up": 28.01, "upward_expansion": 30.22, "deceleration": 49.51, "rotation_down": 17.4, "downward_expansion": 40.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.608667, 51.155301, 50.191959, 51.658619 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.96, "trend_reference": 54.712929, "distance_from_trend": -0.032039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.933929, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.376809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207342, "excess_performance": -0.332967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208772, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128947, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207342, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11695047, "relative_activity": 0.560681, "balance": 0.928283, "dry_up": 0.791553, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063338, "annualized_volatility": 0.381323, "from_high_reference": -0.261967, "from_low_reference": 0.181615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.712929, "fair_value_reference": 66.933929, "structural_low": 44.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.015669, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.031934, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.066378, "worst_return": -0.184641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019596, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080761, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.111434, "worst_return": -0.218438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054229, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178373, "worst_return": -0.315324, "sufficient": true }, 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068749, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074558, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064096, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.117644, "energy": 24.060724, "activity_lines": [ 51.636737, 50.142664, 49.997366, 52.521937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.96, "volume": 14953314, "typical_volume": 21211232.05, "trend": 55.710427, "fair_value": 67.306844, "relative_strength": -23.800432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.166219, "energy": 20.448332, "activity_lines": [ 51.363284, 50.303967, 49.880837, 52.112493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.9, "volume": 21420518, "typical_volume": 21467036.05, "trend": 55.184612, "fair_value": 67.111064, "relative_strength": -22.476258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.508636, "energy": 13.967166, "activity_lines": [ 51.153271, 50.570543, 49.921957, 51.802143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.96, "volume": 11695047, "typical_volume": 20858654.55, "trend": 54.712929, "fair_value": 66.933929, "relative_strength": -21.376809, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.659032, "energy": 7.58669, "activity_lines": [ 51.608667, 51.155301, 50.191959, 51.658619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }