{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9a1ae3a-0327-4c39-992d-1813f0878f1f", "symbol": "SBZ", "name": "Schoolblazer Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.769, "architecture_energy": 27.431, "architecture_maturity": 87.759, "architecture_confidence": 95.209, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.35, "rotation_up": 26.11, "upward_expansion": 6.94, "deceleration": 50.16, "rotation_down": 44.14, "downward_expansion": 73.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.18, 0.181595, 0.186366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.175, "trend_reference": 0.1935, "distance_from_trend": -0.095607, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.275113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.363898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.380627, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102564, "excess_performance": -0.16627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.363898, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 494879, "relative_activity": 0.508629, "balance": 0.399262, "dry_up": 1.02552, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105495, "annualized_volatility": 0.36699, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.09375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1935, "fair_value_reference": 0.275113, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.01961, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.016913, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.187497, "worst_return": -0.170213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035386, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.137402, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055434, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081514, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118122, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.18, "volume": 1996193, "typical_volume": 932316.6, "trend": 0.197, "fair_value": 0.276158, "relative_strength": -16.854924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.437185, "energy": 21.346315, "activity_lines": [ 0.185333, 0.181727, 0.184, 0.189108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.175, "volume": 1349961, "typical_volume": 964597.25, "trend": 0.1955, "fair_value": 0.275579, "relative_strength": -20.497235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.567779, "energy": 17.445584, "activity_lines": [ 0.182333, 0.180909, 0.182714, 0.187688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.175, "volume": 494879, "typical_volume": 972967.45, "trend": 0.1935, "fair_value": 0.275113, "relative_strength": -22.380627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.769376, "energy": 27.430667, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.18, 0.181595, 0.186366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }