{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c9acbe26-2711-4fe0-ba47-45f1f8b56ed9",
    "symbol": "SMHN",
    "name": "SUSS MicroTec SE",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 10.605,
    "architecture_energy": 19.166,
    "architecture_maturity": 76.735,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.004,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 63.47,
        "rotation_up": 16.76,
        "upward_expansion": 45.7,
        "deceleration": 87.9,
        "rotation_down": 37.21,
        "downward_expansion": 26.03
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        79.63,
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        85.198195,
        79.53452
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 83.199997,
    "trend_reference": 71.008625,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.171689,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 45.58604,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.82512,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 40.657155,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.796934,
    "excess_performance": 0.732294,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.171689,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.312037,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.82512,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.375852,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.406572,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.642038,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.796934,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.136356,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 487924,
      "relative_activity": 0.960276,
      "balance": 1.136356,
      "dry_up": 0.940889,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.137517,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.634954,
      "from_high_reference": -0.269535,
      "from_low_reference": 2.468083
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 71.008625,
      "fair_value_reference": 45.58604,
      "structural_low": 42.402677,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.098986,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.059156,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.346535,
        "worst_return": -0.219118,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.296188,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.231272,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.651409,
        "worst_return": -0.059034,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.799181,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.718674,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.799181,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.241959,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.378252,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.241959,
        "worst_return": -0.241959,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-04-19",
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        "return": 0.120155,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.107947,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 65.958051,
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        "relative_strength": 59.231184,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 79.300003,
        "volume": 405256,
        "typical_volume": 531042.25,
        "trend": 67.301249,
        "fair_value": 44.484125,
        "relative_strength": 48.397912,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.719525,
        "energy": 26.56462,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.500001,
          90.25776,
          85.097511,
          77.534693
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 79.150002,
        "volume": 316296,
        "typical_volume": 520230.05,
        "trend": 68.666103,
        "fair_value": 44.848912,
        "relative_strength": 44.533155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.407291,
        "energy": 27.073345,
        "activity_lines": [
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          85.262132,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 74.4,
        "volume": 702818,
        "typical_volume": 517188.3,
        "trend": 69.785325,
        "fair_value": 45.187053,
        "relative_strength": 31.284298,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.173627,
        "energy": 21.570315,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.980001,
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          84.84546,
          78.669057
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 83.199997,
        "volume": 487924,
        "typical_volume": 508108.2,
        "trend": 71.008625,
        "fair_value": 45.58604,
        "relative_strength": 40.657155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.605125,
        "energy": 19.16571,
        "activity_lines": [
          79.63,
          84.116364,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}