{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9b7875c-0d14-4114-b974-91dd08f50dbb", "symbol": "1211", "name": "Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden)", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.46, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.642, "architecture_energy": 48.576, "architecture_maturity": 29.371, "architecture_confidence": 89.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 7.27, "deceleration": 52.52, "rotation_down": 54.35, "downward_expansion": 80.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.27, 58.753637, 60.764524, 62.816775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 60.450001, "trend_reference": 65.740001, "distance_from_trend": -0.080469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.192949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.112401, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166782, "excess_performance": -0.134952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554563, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9464640, "relative_activity": 1.05775, "balance": 0.554563, "dry_up": 0.752, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056436, "annualized_volatility": 0.30862, "from_high_reference": -0.243429, "from_low_reference": 0.179512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.740001, "fair_value_reference": 52.192949, "structural_low": 54.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.027228, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037673, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.160256, "worst_return": -0.038259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.282051, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.265967, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.522569, "worst_return": 0.023622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.254492, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.168592, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.476731, "worst_return": -0.101852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 8990247.5, "trend": 66.116667, "fair_value": 51.910577, "relative_strength": -8.480333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.540056, "energy": 80.896046, "activity_lines": [ 58.230001, 59.713637, 62.270953, 64.264624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.450001, "volume": 5795046, "typical_volume": 8805788.2, "trend": 65.983334, "fair_value": 52.001282, "relative_strength": -5.536197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.770815, "energy": 75.420259, "activity_lines": [ 57.866668, 59.281819, 61.703334, 63.770001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.599998, "volume": 6203594, "typical_volume": 8677972.05, "trend": 65.841667, "fair_value": 52.086539, "relative_strength": -6.875427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.744959, "energy": 74.147448, "activity_lines": [ 57.31, 58.617273, 61.021191, 63.164624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.450001, "volume": 9464640, "typical_volume": 8947894.8, "trend": 65.740001, "fair_value": 52.192949, "relative_strength": -3.112401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.642359, "energy": 48.575799, "activity_lines": [ 58.27, 58.753637, 60.764524, 62.816775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }