{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9b9d5a7-e4b9-4630-8a4b-d9d9fe24cbb7", "symbol": "DII-B", "name": "Dorel Industries Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.491, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.582, "architecture_energy": 32.12, "architecture_maturity": 23.145, "architecture_confidence": 86.943, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.62, "rotation_up": 20.48, "upward_expansion": 8.08, "deceleration": 41.66, "rotation_down": 54.43, "downward_expansion": 76.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.556, 1.583091, 1.60019, 1.630495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.55, "trend_reference": 1.702, "distance_from_trend": -0.089307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.815192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.076248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201031, "excess_performance": -0.321452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003143, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201031, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.022242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 369700, "relative_activity": 5.047788, "balance": 2.022242, "dry_up": 1.930639, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112655, "annualized_volatility": 0.493883, "from_high_reference": -0.354167, "from_low_reference": 0.409091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.702, "fair_value_reference": 3.815192, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.00259, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003934, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.097173, "worst_return": -0.635897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.049438, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.055365, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.696113, "worst_return": -0.670707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051311, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.011666, "worst_return": -0.709447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.484615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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"direction": -26.021846, "energy": 16.471496, "activity_lines": [ 1.650667, 1.623273, 1.636048, 1.672065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.58, "volume": 66100, "typical_volume": 62055.0, "trend": 1.712667, "fair_value": 3.893397, "relative_strength": -12.798655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.244051, "energy": 21.892698, "activity_lines": [ 1.639333, 1.618364, 1.62881, 1.663742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.53, "volume": 78800, "typical_volume": 62885.0, "trend": 1.714333, "fair_value": 3.866474, "relative_strength": -15.451824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.151314, "energy": 18.172971, "activity_lines": [ 1.606667, 1.604545, 1.617667, 1.651957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.54, "volume": 51000, "typical_volume": 63010.0, "trend": 1.708333, "fair_value": 3.838974, "relative_strength": -14.173223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.185286, "energy": 28.651369, "activity_lines": [ 1.574667, 1.592, 1.608048, 1.64071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.55, "volume": 369700, "typical_volume": 73240.0, "trend": 1.702, "fair_value": 3.815192, "relative_strength": -16.076248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.582411, "energy": 32.119795, "activity_lines": [ 1.556, 1.583091, 1.60019, 1.630495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }