{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9ba298e-596f-4b73-831d-c8d61d32656c", "symbol": "EAF", "name": "GrafTech International Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.896, "architecture_energy": 14.004, "architecture_maturity": 42.53, "architecture_confidence": 77.727, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.84, "rotation_up": 26.1, "upward_expansion": 14.7, "deceleration": 43.39, "rotation_down": 32.12, "downward_expansion": 62.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.306667, 7.114545, 7.67319, 7.704151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.13, "trend_reference": 8.41, "distance_from_trend": -0.033294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.695628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.446774, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.689362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03673, "excess_performance": -0.162355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.446774, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035175, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.795579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1235406, "relative_activity": 0.823776, "balance": 0.795579, "dry_up": 1.229255, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211402, "annualized_volatility": 0.843903, "from_high_reference": -0.599902, "from_low_reference": 0.652439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.41, "fair_value_reference": 14.695628, "structural_low": 4.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.005952, "positive_rate": 0.513514, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.011453, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.899937, "worst_return": -0.291667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033508, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.053281, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.78976, "worst_return": -0.46, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10935, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.095931, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.973879, "worst_return": -0.420755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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1485607.2, "trend": 9.322667, "fair_value": 15.409795, "relative_strength": -43.646713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.371767, "energy": 59.670873, "activity_lines": [ 6.490667, 7.257455, 7.734714, 8.01172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.44, "volume": 1849916, "typical_volume": 1517095.05, "trend": 9.029, "fair_value": 15.135692, "relative_strength": -38.108702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.929064, "energy": 47.690499, "activity_lines": [ 6.743333, 7.178545, 7.721952, 7.890258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.72, "volume": 2045217, "typical_volume": 1512614.8, "trend": 8.705667, "fair_value": 14.919154, "relative_strength": -43.920756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.416632, "energy": 33.760024, "activity_lines": [ 6.774, 6.996727, 7.632952, 7.74129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.13, "volume": 1235406, "typical_volume": 1499686.0, "trend": 8.41, "fair_value": 14.695628, "relative_strength": -33.689362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.895952, "energy": 14.004157, "activity_lines": [ 7.306667, 7.114545, 7.67319, 7.704151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }