{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9bad110-1a9e-4831-9e68-5066120eb636", "symbol": "000688", "name": "GuoCheng Mining CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.972, "architecture_energy": 56.5, "architecture_maturity": 18.301, "architecture_confidence": 50.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.3, "rotation_up": 18.63, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 44.47, "rotation_down": 67.36, "downward_expansion": 61.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.086, 31.188, 35.678593, 36.528076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.34, "trend_reference": 35.971891, "distance_from_trend": -0.128764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.379969, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.803225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.637001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173125, "excess_performance": 0.165726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.803225, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.085128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07637, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594605, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108264963, "relative_activity": 0.959532, "balance": 0.777058, "dry_up": 0.960413, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202494, "annualized_volatility": 0.945201, "from_high_reference": -0.405651, "from_low_reference": 1.335792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.971891, "fair_value_reference": 17.379969, "structural_low": 23.879999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031553, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021773, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.050168, "worst_return": -0.037962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.218928, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278876, "worst_return": 0.158981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015045, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16662, "worst_return": -0.136529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.192615, "energy": 57.50788, "activity_lines": [ 31.222667, 35.132909, 38.52488, 37.855365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.74, "volume": 128147847, "typical_volume": 115391044.8, "trend": 35.88887, "fair_value": 17.190273, "relative_strength": 0.5764, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.940816, "energy": 58.17133, "activity_lines": [ 29.546, 33.342182, 37.42211, 37.334516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.9, "volume": 104914662, "typical_volume": 114508544.35, "trend": 35.850951, "fair_value": 17.269609, "relative_strength": 1.9089, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.984117, "energy": 63.717952, "activity_lines": [ 28.597333, 31.810545, 36.366579, 36.819105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.34, "volume": 108264963, "typical_volume": 112831052.7, "trend": 35.971891, "fair_value": 17.379969, "relative_strength": 7.637001, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.972321, "energy": 56.499807, "activity_lines": [ 29.086, 31.188, 35.678593, 36.528076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }