{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9bd32fb-99fb-4478-a4f1-3daf62337ca6", "symbol": "002887", "name": "Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.781, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.785, "architecture_energy": 42.905, "architecture_maturity": 12.062, "architecture_confidence": 60.369, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.86, "rotation_up": 19.56, "upward_expansion": 14.35, "deceleration": 50.88, "rotation_down": 64.85, "downward_expansion": 56.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.922, 10.209455, 11.144296, 11.295628 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.65, "trend_reference": 11.219616, "distance_from_trend": -0.05077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.254535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2902, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.856555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100207, "excess_performance": 0.092807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424944, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36140133, "relative_activity": 1.324772, "balance": 1.424944, "dry_up": 1.084726, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124908, "annualized_volatility": 0.515534, "from_high_reference": -0.319372, "from_low_reference": 0.280048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.219616, "fair_value_reference": 8.254535, "structural_low": 8.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031877, "worst_return": -0.034325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.101535, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101535, "worst_return": 0.101535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.269185, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.190838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.269185, "worst_return": -0.269185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.176767, 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"2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186916, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.231847, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060852, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065567, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 27416443.3, "trend": 11.175616, "fair_value": 8.23791, "relative_strength": -7.792914, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.600582, "energy": 62.501518, "activity_lines": [ 9.872, 10.597828, 11.439567, 11.440933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 16935350, "typical_volume": 26652638.3, "trend": 11.176616, "fair_value": 8.243485, "relative_strength": -7.444546, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.866847, "energy": 62.961501, "activity_lines": [ 9.671333, 10.249769, 11.228812, 11.329603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.65, "volume": 36140133, "typical_volume": 27280262.0, "trend": 11.219616, "fair_value": 8.254535, "relative_strength": -0.856555, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.785078, "energy": 42.905027, "activity_lines": [ 9.922, 10.209455, 11.144296, 11.295628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }