{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9be3faa-1883-43a5-82a4-70eca0f80633", "symbol": "D07", "name": "State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.131, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.281, "architecture_energy": 71.23, "architecture_maturity": 73.592, "architecture_confidence": 55.581, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.79, "rotation_up": 58.33, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.48, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 526.934058, 524.30005, 514.676678, 506.02858 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 540.679993, "trend_reference": 497.665282, "distance_from_trend": 0.086433, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 421.242342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.790379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097091, "excess_performance": -0.057744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086433, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27, "relative_activity": 0.318584, "balance": 0.432, "dry_up": 0.743363, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016136, "annualized_volatility": 0.127964, "from_high_reference": -0.030953, "from_low_reference": 0.232281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 497.665282, "fair_value_reference": 421.242342, "structural_low": 450.022095, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.006181, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.001426, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.054333, "worst_return": -0.067379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000122, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00642, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.108079, "worst_return": -0.043971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.065531, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024333, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.127849, "worst_return": -0.140048, "sufficient": 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"trend": 493.421366, "fair_value": 417.531202, "relative_strength": -6.071361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.179487, "energy": 88.205322, "activity_lines": [ 525.187435, 518.745151, 506.687044, 500.039437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 519.01001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 80.6, "trend": 494.672523, "fair_value": 418.781399, "relative_strength": -8.160378, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.02004, "energy": 87.39604, "activity_lines": [ 523.686959, 519.76294, 508.92219, 501.690317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 517.01001, "volume": 211, "typical_volume": 87.8, "trend": 495.774403, "fair_value": 419.940597, "relative_strength": -8.937684, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.233666, "energy": 64.010203, "activity_lines": [ 521.309408, 520.046695, 510.792498, 503.131445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 540.679993, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 84.75, "trend": 497.665282, "fair_value": 421.242342, "relative_strength": -5.790379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.281047, "energy": 71.229683, "activity_lines": [ 526.934058, 524.30005, 514.676678, 506.02858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }