{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9c6927e-84dc-4d67-a43b-9410261c9dda", "symbol": "TCH-F56", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4A) S&P Technology Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.772, "architecture_energy": 67.207, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.248, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.74, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.89, "rotation_down": 56.02, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.453333, 121.525455, 3059.137619, 4833.393333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 123.1, "trend_reference": 6809.32, "distance_from_trend": -0.981922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7669.875641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.632974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.986875, "excess_performance": -1.015775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.981922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322761, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.441411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.919993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.986875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18043, "relative_activity": 1.503727, "balance": 0.645922, "dry_up": 1.161278, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.953071, "annualized_volatility": 6.392631, "from_high_reference": -0.990315, "from_low_reference": 0.089381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6809.32, "fair_value_reference": 7669.875641, "structural_low": 113.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004823, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00228, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.214985, "worst_return": -0.113003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020221, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027488, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.262504, "worst_return": -0.985755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.173291, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.078761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.385516, "worst_return": -0.194487, "sufficient": false }, 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18566, "typical_volume": 11150.4, "trend": 7134.283333, "fair_value": 7709.176282, "relative_strength": -98.714292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.302936, "energy": 68.094924, "activity_lines": [ 119.686667, 349.916364, 3606.273333, 5285.727742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.1, "volume": 18043, "typical_volume": 11998.85, "trend": 6809.32, "fair_value": 7669.875641, "relative_strength": -98.632974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.772476, "energy": 67.20749, "activity_lines": [ 120.453333, 121.525455, 3059.137619, 4833.393333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }