{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9c8497c-bee5-455b-891a-3313bc0c7d20", "symbol": "EATN", "name": "AmRest Holdings SE", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.811, "architecture_energy": 65.932, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.585, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.37, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 46.9, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.540001, 48.553092, 49.608143, 54.060796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 48.540001, "trend_reference": 64.542333, "distance_from_trend": -0.247935, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.944729, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.494084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.835351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.544011, "excess_performance": -0.489344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247935, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.494084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059064, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.544011, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.733775, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0245, "annualized_volatility": 0.875194, "from_high_reference": -0.544011, "from_low_reference": 0.01697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.542333, "fair_value_reference": 95.944729, "structural_low": 47.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.005676, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.025701, "worst_return": -0.066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.039906, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038398, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.025701, "worst_return": -0.148782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.01523, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01523, "worst_return": -0.01523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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67.891571, "activity_lines": [ 48.540001, 48.689274, 50.197572, 56.499226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8337.35, "trend": 66.472666, "fair_value": 96.167551, "relative_strength": -43.777296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.418137, "energy": 67.036557, "activity_lines": [ 48.540001, 48.628546, 49.886286, 55.217742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4512.2, "trend": 64.542333, "fair_value": 95.944729, "relative_strength": -42.835351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.810785, "energy": 65.931753, "activity_lines": [ 48.540001, 48.553092, 49.608143, 54.060796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }