{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9cc36ce-7f71-4c8a-a429-a3f7bd3b1520", "symbol": "IN-FF16", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS II", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.805, "architecture_energy": 63.076, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.215, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.08, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.37, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 224.193333, 221.367273, 5470.662857, 9378.501505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 225.0, "trend_reference": 13885.113333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983796, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19268.212727, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988323, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.824736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989392, "excess_performance": -1.018292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988323, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.943672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.71752, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.53942, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2002, "relative_activity": 1.078025, "balance": 1.53942, "dry_up": 1.038851, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.154872, "annualized_volatility": 6.329358, "from_high_reference": -0.990092, "from_low_reference": 0.090116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13885.113333, "fair_value_reference": 19268.212727, "structural_low": 206.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007717, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043226, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.058546, "worst_return": -0.989478, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.989399, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.971862, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.989399, "worst_return": -0.989399, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 223.273333, 579.52, 6525.131429, 10304.433548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 225.0, "volume": 2002, "typical_volume": 1857.1, "trend": 13885.113333, "fair_value": 19268.212727, "relative_strength": -98.824736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.805239, "energy": 63.076466, "activity_lines": [ 224.193333, 221.367273, 5470.662857, 9378.501505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }