{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9cc920e-992b-440d-8548-4a828b71d456", "symbol": "CEC", "name": "Amundi MSCI Eastern Europe Ex Russia UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.891, "architecture_energy": 93.23, "architecture_maturity": 45.37, "architecture_confidence": 84.972, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.25, "rotation_up": 83.42, "upward_expansion": 99.47, "deceleration": 39.23, "rotation_down": 12.42, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.121001, 45.233818, 44.107334, 42.957538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 47.490002, "trend_reference": 41.580167, "distance_from_trend": 0.142131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.526618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608379, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.592036, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181343, "excess_performance": 0.128032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608379, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082893, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.15592, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181343, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.175763, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59910, "relative_activity": 1.39162, "balance": 3.175763, "dry_up": 1.248614, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027164, "annualized_volatility": 0.213345, "from_high_reference": -0.004298, "from_low_reference": 0.516042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.580167, "fair_value_reference": 29.526618, "structural_low": 35.855, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.020219, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.012582, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.13775, "worst_return": -0.097994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.094932, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.060418, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.167247, "worst_return": -0.033126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.155866, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.113103, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.23446, "worst_return": -0.046103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 44.224998, "volume": 35289, "typical_volume": 43065.4, "trend": 40.6995, "fair_value": 29.032419, "relative_strength": 14.11185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.475684, "energy": 54.687372, "activity_lines": [ 44.170999, 43.841, 42.868762, 41.91386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.435001, "volume": 59148, "typical_volume": 40344.9, "trend": 40.992167, "fair_value": 29.189727, "relative_strength": 16.177361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.053184, "energy": 77.180989, "activity_lines": [ 44.647, 44.199091, 43.231643, 42.219376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.215, "volume": 60667, "typical_volume": 40930.55, "trend": 41.271334, "fair_value": 29.353862, "relative_strength": 15.704271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.803084, "energy": 84.555838, "activity_lines": [ 45.278333, 44.633091, 43.629976, 42.556333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.490002, "volume": 59910, "typical_volume": 43050.55, "trend": 41.580167, "fair_value": 29.526618, "relative_strength": 15.592036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.890791, "energy": 93.229553, "activity_lines": [ 46.121001, 45.233818, 44.107334, 42.957538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }