{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9cced48-245f-4d37-af12-b8920103f37b", "symbol": "002875", "name": "Annil Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.991, "architecture_energy": 83.404, "architecture_maturity": 24.94, "architecture_confidence": 94.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 12.32, "upward_expansion": 20.87, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 72.23, "downward_expansion": 94.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.662667, 13.437636, 16.300333, 17.337398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.81, "trend_reference": 18.093667, "distance_from_trend": -0.23675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.741538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.479577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166566, "excess_performance": -0.173966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.805946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.419246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194014, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26609023, "relative_activity": 0.905025, "balance": 0.194014, "dry_up": 1.019292, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142984, "annualized_volatility": 0.559031, "from_high_reference": -0.484701, "from_low_reference": 0.309005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.093667, "fair_value_reference": 14.741538, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.017007, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.040162, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.230216, "worst_return": -0.083705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029018, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.156615, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.991667, "worst_return": -0.10572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.293103, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.170795, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.833145, "worst_return": -0.006696, "sufficient": true }, { 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30004871.2, "trend": 18.482, "fair_value": 14.764167, "relative_strength": -33.364264, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.968844, "energy": 91.328896, "activity_lines": [ 13.647333, 15.460727, 18.090857, 18.467742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.21, "volume": 29861175, "typical_volume": 29619105.3, "trend": 18.323, "fair_value": 14.747756, "relative_strength": -37.26036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.444252, "energy": 92.087195, "activity_lines": [ 12.62, 14.336909, 17.337571, 17.998581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.45, "volume": 25241221, "typical_volume": 29522182.25, "trend": 18.185333, "fair_value": 14.741795, "relative_strength": -28.768364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.948165, "energy": 87.001779, "activity_lines": [ 12.326, 13.669091, 16.738095, 17.619677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.81, "volume": 26609023, "typical_volume": 29401419.65, "trend": 18.093667, "fair_value": 14.741538, "relative_strength": -24.479577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.990879, "energy": 83.40363, "activity_lines": [ 12.662667, 13.437636, 16.300333, 17.337398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }