{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9d1298e-51f7-411d-bb8b-1239ecba4b16", "symbol": "HFRN", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Floating Rate USD Corporate ESG", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.06, "architecture_energy": 83.684, "architecture_maturity": 38.73, "architecture_confidence": 78.204, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 69.29, "upward_expansion": 96.83, "deceleration": 41.51, "rotation_down": 23.65, "downward_expansion": 18.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.548001, 56.499637, 56.385429, 56.269119 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 56.580002, "trend_reference": 56.125334, "distance_from_trend": 0.008101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.977821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.279019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011803, "excess_performance": -0.159089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 29.645566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8372, "relative_activity": 0.863721, "balance": 29.645566, "dry_up": 0.682248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001699, "annualized_volatility": 0.006443, "from_high_reference": -0.000883, "from_low_reference": 0.031541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.125334, "fair_value_reference": 53.977821, "structural_low": 55.599998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.003102, "positive_rate": 0.931818, "directional_follow_through": 0.931818, "median_excess_return": -0.014835, "regime_survival": 0.931818, "best_return": 0.01095, "worst_return": -0.01065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056575, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.014671, "worst_return": 0.003843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020214, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107095, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027195, "worst_return": 0.013113, "sufficient": true }, { 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11900.2, "trend": 56.042, "fair_value": 53.865385, "relative_strength": -11.493435, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.264076, "energy": 87.303053, "activity_lines": [ 56.465334, 56.413637, 56.280334, 56.17557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.52, "volume": 8710, "typical_volume": 11155.4, "trend": 56.070334, "fair_value": 53.902885, "relative_strength": -10.963356, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.516457, "energy": 86.466988, "activity_lines": [ 56.490667, 56.441819, 56.315286, 56.206409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.560001, "volume": 6179, "typical_volume": 9627.0, "trend": 56.097667, "fair_value": 53.940641, "relative_strength": -11.125094, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.608867, "energy": 83.481569, "activity_lines": [ 56.521334, 56.471819, 56.351048, 56.238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.580002, "volume": 8372, "typical_volume": 9692.95, "trend": 56.125334, "fair_value": 53.977821, "relative_strength": -13.279019, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.060151, "energy": 83.684058, "activity_lines": [ 56.548001, 56.499637, 56.385429, 56.269119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }